The World Steel Association on Tuesday trimmed its projection for global crude steel demand in 2026, attributing the cut in part to a steep contraction in consumption in the Middle East amid the Iran war.
New forecast
The industry group now forecasts growth in steel demand for 2026 of 0.3% at 1.72 billion metric tons, down from a previous October projection of 1.3%.
Regional impact and near-term path
"We expect the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to result in a sharp drop in that region’s steel demand for 2026, which was otherwise positioned for strong growth," said Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, chair of the group’s economics committee. He added that the association is shifting to a trajectory of modest growth in 2026, with a more pronounced acceleration anticipated in 2027.
The association also said crude steel demand is expected to increase by 2.2% next year to 1.76 billion tones.
Outlook for major producers
China, the world’s largest steel producer, is projected to see output decline by 1.5% this year, a result the association links to strains in its property and construction sector. The group expects Chinese output to be flat in 2027.
"As the structural realignment of the property market stabilises, we anticipate that Chinese steel demand may transition into a period of cyclical stability," the statement said.
Growth in India
The association said demand in India, identified as the world’s fastest growing major steel market, is forecast to remain robust, rising 7.4% this year and accelerating to a 9.2% increase in 2027.
This assessment highlights the interplay between geopolitical developments and demand drivers tied to construction and property sectors, while pointing to uneven regional trajectories through 2027.