The Iran conflict will force a lasting change in how energy is bought and sold around the world, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy forum. He cautioned that markets will not simply revert to pre-crisis trade arrangements once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, following a US blockade of Iranian ports this week.
Birol framed the expected market realignment as a structural shift, likening it to earlier seismic episodes in the energy sector. He cited the 1970s energy shocks - which prompted an expansion of nuclear power and altered the auto sector - and the impacts of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led to a faster move toward renewables. In Birol's assessment, the current situation will trigger similarly far-reaching adjustments.
Central to the coming changes, Birol said, will be a greater emphasis on energy security. Governments and companies are likely to price in additional risk when choosing trade partners - accounting for the possibility of interruptions and whether a supplier could employ energy as a geopolitical lever. He underscored the importance of partner reliability in future contracting and supply strategies.
"Trustworthiness [and] predictability will be very important in the energy trade and energy security,"
Birol added:
"Which trade partners we are going to use will be a major, major chapter in the energy business."
The IEA director also addressed emergency market responses. He noted that IEA member countries agreed last month to release 400 million reserve barrels of oil and said the agency remains ready to move quickly to support supplies if necessary. He indicated that discussions on such measures are ongoing.
At the same time, Birol warned that coordinated oil releases are a stopgap, not a long-term solution. He suggested that April will present greater challenges for global energy markets than March, as the remaining tankers that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict make their final deliveries.
From a logistics and freight perspective, Birol's remarks point toward reshaped shipping lanes, altered supplier-customer relationships, and renewed premium pricing for reliability - developments that will influence trading firms, transportation operators and downstream energy consumers as they reassess counterparty risk and routing decisions.