TD Cowen's analysis of recent bank earnings indicates that credit card spending accelerated in the first quarter. Sequential card trends were modestly above expectations, a dynamic the report attributes in part to the earlier timing of Easter this year.
Balance growth remained solid in the quarter and exhibited a modest uptick, according to the bank's synthesis of quarterly disclosures. That combination of stronger spend and steady balance expansion underpinned the view of an improving consumer-credit backdrop in the period under review.
On the reserve and loss guidance front, JPMorgan Chase maintained its 2026 loss guidance, signaling what the bank describes as a manageable and largely flat loss rate for the year. JPMorgan's reserve rate rose quarter-over-quarter, a move the analysis suggests is likely related to seasonal patterns reported in the quarter rather than a material deterioration in credit quality.
Auto lending showed divergent originations trends among large banks. Wells Fargo reported a sharp year-over-year increase in auto-loan originations in the quarter, while JPMorgan Chase recorded a modest year-over-year decline in originations. Separately, JPMorgan reported operating lease income of $1.2 billion for the quarter, up from $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $824 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Delinquency and charge-off trends improved across the banks covered. JPMorgan's 30-plus day delinquencies fell 24 basis points quarter-over-quarter, while Wells Fargo's 30-plus day delinquencies declined 26 basis points over the same period. Net charge-offs at JPMorgan decreased 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter and were down 9 basis points year-over-year. Wells Fargo's net charge-off rate was unchanged quarter-over-quarter and declined 13 basis points from a year earlier. On delinquencies year-over-year, JPMorgan saw an 11 basis point drop and Wells Fargo reported a 61 basis point decline.
Market indicators for used vehicles moved higher in the quarter: used car values rose 4.7% in the first quarter relative to the prior quarter. That gain in used-vehicle pricing coincided with the improvements in auto-loan performance described above.
Overall, TD Cowen's read of bank earnings points to slightly stronger-than-expected consumer spending in the quarter, steady balance growth and improving asset-quality metrics in auto lending, with seasonal effects noted as a factor in reserve movements at major institutions.
Summary
Credit card spending accelerated sequentially in Q1, balance growth modestly improved, JPMorgan kept its 2026 loss guidance and reserves ticked up seasonally. Auto originations diverged across banks, delinquency and charge-off metrics improved, and used car values rose 4.7% versus the prior quarter.