Global trade flows and freight markets are operating under continued strain more than 50 days into the Iran war, with notable cost pressure across air, ocean and truck transport, according to analysis from Bernstein.
Air cargo spot rates have climbed roughly 30% overall, driven in part by capacity cuts from carriers in the Gulf. Qatar Airways and Emirates - together responsible for around 11% of global ton-kilometres in 2024 - have trimmed operations to roughly 60% and 74% of their normal levels respectively, while jet fuel costs have nearly doubled. Those dynamics have helped lift some air lanes to near-double rates and pushed the composite airfreight rate to about $3.30/kg in January 2026.
On the ocean side, headline indexes have moved materially higher versus mid-February levels, Bernstein reports. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index is up 42% since mid-February, and the Drewry World Container Index has climbed 18% over the same interval. Ocean volumes fell 3% across January and February combined, a decline Bernstein notes is partly influenced by tough year-earlier comparisons ahead of tariff announcements in April 2025.
Despite the conflict, only roughly 2% of global container traffic transits the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the direct exposure of container shipping compared with tanker markets. Dubai’s Jebel Ali is the principal container port affected by disruptions tied to the conflict. Container operators have largely continued to steer Asia-Europe services around the Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Red Sea. Bernstein highlights that a quick, large-scale return to Red Sea routings appears unlikely in the near term given the Houthis’ alignment with Iran, which delays any immediate release of capacity back into the market.
Bernstein’s supply outlook for industry capacity shows growth of 2.4% in 2026, accelerating to 6.9% in 2027 and 9.6% in 2028 - figures the firm describes as well ahead of structural demand.
Trucking markets are also tightening. Excluding fuel, spot truckload rates rose 24% year-on-year in February, 19% in March and 25% so far in April, with Bernstein pointing to stricter government oversight and fuel-price pressures that are squeezing carriers. Those changes are consistent with carrier commentary: J.B. Hunt Transport Services said on its first-quarter earnings call, "As we moved through the first quarter, the freight environment felt meaningfully different than what we’ve operated in over the past several years," adding that "a predominantly supply driven freight recovery continued to gain steam."
Air cargo weight that is chargeable fell between 5% and 10% in March and April, yet revenues for airfreight grew in the low-to-mid teens year-on-year in April, Bernstein said, reflecting higher yields that incorporate fuel, insurance and staffing surcharges.
Economic indicators through March offered mixed signals for demand, Bernstein noted. Purchasing Managers’ Index readings cited by the firm were 52.7 for the U.S., 50.8 for China and 51.6 for Europe - the latter its highest in nearly three years, according to ISM and Eurostat data referenced by Bernstein.
Energy prices have also fed through to transport costs. Bernstein reported oil is trading $25-$30 per barrel higher since the conflict began, adding to modal cost pressure.
On equities, Bernstein assigns an "outperform" rating to DSV with a DKK 2,100 price target, arguing that synergies from DB Schenker are not fully reflected. The firm assigns an "underperform" rating to Maersk with a DKK 10,700 target, citing a challenged container outlook and a growing fleet orderbook. FedEx and UPS are both rated "outperform" with targets of $470 and $130 respectively.