Overview
Global liquefied natural gas markets face a sustained period of elevated prices through 2026 as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrains flows. According to a recent assessment by BCA Research, even under a scenario in which the strategic waterway reopens by May, the conflict-driven disruption will trim global LNG exports by at least 6% this year.
Supply impact and projections
The disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced available volumes from Persian Gulf producers, tightening the pool of LNG available to buyers worldwide. BCA Research frames the immediate consequence as a meaningful supply shortfall for energy-importing countries, creating near-term upward pressure on prices and elevating uncertainty for markets dependent on external gas supplies.
While 2026 is expected to be shaped by these constraints, the report and market commentary point toward a structural change in supply capacity that begins to take effect from 2027. A wave of liquefaction projects in multiple producing countries is scheduled to come online starting in that year, which analysts expect will shift the market from current tightening toward the risk of material surplus by 2028 if buildouts proceed as planned.
How Asian demand is responding
Asia, where consumption of imported LNG is large, is feeling the effects most acutely. Importing nations are adjusting through a mix of energy rationing measures, increased reliance on coal-fired generation and purchases in the spot market to fill immediate needs. The Strait of Hormuz functions as a primary transit route for Persian Gulf LNG, so its closure has particular consequences for these buyers.
Analysts note that for spot-market procurement to remain a feasible bridge without precipitating widespread demand destruction, global natural gas prices will likely need to remain well under the peaks seen during the 2022 energy crisis. That pricing constraint reflects the balance between tolerating higher costs and avoiding rapid reductions in consumption driven by unaffordable fuel bills.
Medium-term capacity additions and market outlook
From 2027 onward, significant additions to liquefaction capacity are expected from projects in jurisdictions including the United States, Qatar, Canada and Senegal. These projects are forecast to provide a substantial cushion to global supply, potentially easing tightness and generating large potential surpluses by 2028 if timelines hold.
Given this pipeline of new capacity, the current price spikes are viewed within the industry as potentially transitory. That assessment depends on the pace at which new plants ramp up and begin exporting at advertised volumes, an area of focus for market participants once the acute 2026 disruption passes.
Implications for markets and corporate sectors
The present environment calls for heightened caution among energy-intensive sectors and utilities that rely on gas. In the short term, these firms face cost pressures and operational risk as they contend with higher fuel costs and supply uncertainty. Over the medium term, the arrival of additional liquefaction capacity may relieve pricing stress, but the speed of that adjustment will be critical for corporate planning and investment decisions.
Conclusion
In sum, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has elevated the risk profile for global LNG markets through 2026, producing measurable export losses and forcing demand-side adjustments in Asia. The structural supply additions slated from 2027 offer a route back toward balance, but the transitional period will require careful monitoring of price behavior and the operational delivery of new liquefaction capacity.