World April 26, 2026 11:36 AM

Poll Shows Fujimori and Sanchez Locked in Dead Heat Ahead of Peru Runoff

Ipsos Peru finds both candidates at 38% as counts continue and a narrow fight for second fuels fraud claims

By Avery Klein
Poll Shows Fujimori and Sanchez Locked in Dead Heat Ahead of Peru Runoff

A new Ipsos Peru survey shows right-wing Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sanchez tied at 38% each in a potential June 7 presidential runoff, as Peru's vote tallying continues under the shadow of fraud allegations and a close contest for second place. The slow count and demands to annul ballots have drawn scrutiny from international observers and regional organizations while preliminary tallies show Fujimori ahead in first-round vote share.

Key Points

  • Ipsos Peru poll puts Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sanchez tied at 38% each for a June 7 runoff; this is the first poll since the April 12 first round.
  • A narrow contest for second place has left Rafael Lopez Aliaga about 24,000 votes behind Sanchez; with 95.8% counted, first-round shares stand at Fujimori 17%, Sanchez 12% and Lopez Aliaga 11.9%.
  • International actors have rejected claims of widespread fraud - EU observers found no evidence to support cancellations of votes, and the Organization of American States backed the electoral board's refusal of supplementary elections.

LIMA, April 26 - A fresh Ipsos Peru poll released on Sunday indicates the country's presidential race could head into a neck-and-neck runoff, with right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sanchez both polling at 38% for a potential June 7 second round. The survey is the first public poll taken since the April 12 first round.

The vote-counting process has been slow, and that delay has coincided with allegations of fraud from ultra-conservative contender Rafael Lopez Aliaga. Lopez Aliaga trails Sanchez by roughly 24,000 votes in the highly contested scramble for second place - a margin that has increased in recent days.

Lopez Aliaga has demanded that thousands of votes be annulled on the grounds of alleged fraud. European Union observers, however, reported they found no evidence supporting those claims.

According to the count with 95.8% of votes reported, Fujimori leads the first-round tallies with 17%, Sanchez holds 12%, and Lopez Aliaga has 11.9%.

The Ipsos poll also explored an alternative runoff scenario. If Fujimori were to face Lopez Aliaga instead of Sanchez, the survey showed Fujimori would be trailing 31% to 34%.

Regional and international bodies have weighed in on the unfolding dispute. The Organization of American States on Friday endorsed the electoral board's dismissal of requests for supplementary elections and urged "unrestricted respect for the popular will."

Roberto Sanchez previously served as a minister under jailed former President Pedro Castillo.

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Risks

  • Ongoing fraud allegations and the slow pace of the vote count create political uncertainty that could affect investor confidence and market stability in Peru - impacting financial markets and sectors sensitive to political risk.
  • A razor-thin gap in the race for second place leaves final runoff participants uncertain until counts finish, which may extend volatility for domestic economic planning and sectors reliant on clear policy direction, such as mining and finance.
  • If the alternate runoff scenario materializes - Fujimori versus Lopez Aliaga - polling suggests different electoral dynamics (31%-34% in that scenario), introducing further uncertainty about policy outcomes and potential market reactions.

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