Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,101 total articles
Pope Leo on April 8 greeted the announcement of an immediate two-week ceasefire in the Iran war and urged a return to negotiation to achieve a lasting end to the conflict. Earlier he described a threat attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran’s population as "truly unacceptable," marking a rare direct rebuke of a world leader from the…
Major international investment banks have revised down earlier forecasts for reductions to China’s benchmark interest rates, now anticipating that official policy rates will remain unchanged through 2026. The shift reflects limited economic disruption from the Iran conflict, signs of an early domestic recovery, and ample liquidity in the banking sy…
U.S. stock futures climbed sharply after Washington and Tehran reached a mediated, temporary ceasefire that includes provisions to allow coordinated tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal alleviated immediate fears of a widespread energy supply shock, sending crude prices down from recent peaks. Gold rebounded as the dollar weakened,…
U.S. stock futures surged on Wednesday following news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, a development that pushed crude oil prices sharply lower and eased some safe-haven flows. The agreement, announced late Tuesday hours before a stated deadline, coincided with broad gains in Asian and European equity indexes and declines in short…
House prices in Britain fell unexpectedly in March, with Halifax reporting a 0.5% month-on-month decline. The lender attributed the pullback to economic uncertainty tied to the Iran war and rising energy-driven inflation expectations that have pushed mortgage rates higher and cooled buyer confidence.
Japan recorded a fourth straight annual rise in corporate bankruptcies in fiscal 2025, with cases reaching 10,425, up 3.5% from the prior year. Teikoku Databank cautions that an escalation in costs following recent Middle East hostilities could prompt another uptick in bankruptcies from around summer, a trend that dovetails with concerns raised by …
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee unanimously voted to maintain the policy repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral stance, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran war. While near-term inflation remains contained and government projections point to strong growth, rising oil prices and market reactions have increa…
The Reserve Bank of India maintained its policy repo rate at 5.25%, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra warning that disruptions from the Iran conflict and wider West Asia tensions pose downside risks to growth. The RBI noted limited recent inflationary pressures but cautioned that higher global energy costs and supply disruptions could lift fuel prices …
Global markets rallied as the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, bringing immediate relief to energy markets and risk assets. Oil dropped below $100 per barrel in Asian trade, Asian equities climbed, and futures for U.S. and European markets pointed to a firm opening. Treasuries ralli…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, saying events in the Middle East have materially altered the outlook by driving up energy costs and lifting near-term inflation. The bank expects headline inflation to rise to about 4.2% in the June quarter, up from 3.1% in December, while noting weaker domestic demand …
At a March 26 meeting of Japan's top economic council, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff urged Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to preserve the independence of the central bank, saying minutes released on Wednesday showed that loss of perceived autonomy could drive long-term government bond yields up, potentially to 3% or above in coming years.
New Zealand’s central bank left the official cash rate at 2.25% for a second straight decision, choosing to wait as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the Middle East war. The hold was widely anticipated by economists, coming after substantial easing last year and amid signs headline inflation is rising above the target band. The bank s…
President Gustavo Petro announced plans to send an economic emergency decree and a tax reform bill to Congress aimed at balancing Colombia's 2026 budget. He warned that, should lawmakers fail to approve the proposals, his administration will implement them by decree. The administration has not specified how much revenue the tax bill is expected to …
A Reuters poll finds all economists expect the Bank of Korea to hold its policy rate at 2.50% on April 10 and maintain that level through the remainder of the year as officials assess the inflationary and growth implications of a sharp rise in oil prices since the start of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The currency's decline and renewed upside risk…
A survey of nearly 100 central banks responsible for over $9.5 trillion in reserves shows geopolitical tensions are now seen as the primary global risk, displacing U.S. trade protection. Over the medium term, inflation and interest rates remain central concerns but their prominence has declined. Confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. sovereign bond…
Agilian Technology, an electronics contract manufacturer based in Dongguan, China, endured frozen U.S. orders, surging levies and client pressure to relocate production during a turbulent 2025. The company temporarily pursued alternative sites in Malaysia and India, but the combination of China’s export controls, shifting tariff rates and the speed…
President Donald Trump said he will delay planned military strikes against Iran for a two-week period after mediation from Pakistan, contingent on Iran immediately and safely reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement, posted on Truth Social, followed discussions with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir and wa…
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it obtained orders for $17.9 billion in monetary relief during fiscal year 2025 and filed 456 enforcement actions in that period. Fiscal year 2025 concluded on September 30. The figure marks a substantial rise in financial remedies compared with $8.2 billion recovered in fiscal year 2024, when the ag…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said short-term interest rates are currently set at a level that allows the central bank to react to uncertain effects from rising energy costs and the conflict in the Middle East. He warned of downside risks to the labor market and upside risks to inflation, while describing the Fed's policy stance as ap…
Global markets paused on heightened geopolitical uncertainty as U.S. President Donald Trump set an 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Equity indices finished largely unchanged after early losses, while oil, currencies and bond markets moved unevenly. Data and forecasts showing rising price pressures added to m…
U.S. short-term credit markets are showing early signs of stress as the war in the Middle East drags on. Spreads on commercial paper and bank floating rate notes have widened in recent weeks, signaling increased funding costs for issuers and greater caution among investors. Data from the Federal Reserve and market strategists point to broader credi…
Mexico's headline inflation is estimated to have accelerated in March for a third consecutive month to 4.63% year-on-year, while the core measure likely eased to 4.46%, according to a Reuters poll. The results, if confirmed by official data, would keep inflation above the central bank's 3% target range and support expectations for further monetary …
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that the war involving Iran has pushed oil prices up at a time when tariff-driven inflation had yet to fully fade. Speaking at the Detroit Economic Club, he said the combination risks embedding higher inflation even as it slows the U.S. economy, creating a difficult policy choice for …
New working paper from the Dallas Federal Reserve models the inflationary impact of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. A closure lasting one quarter would generate a sharp, but short-lived, spike in headline inflation; a three-quarter interruption would raise year-end inflation materially and lift oil prices to roughly $167 a barrel. The…
A Dallas Federal Reserve working paper finds that if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for an extended period amid the Iran War, the shock to oil markets could lift headline inflation above 4% by year-end under severe disruption scenarios. Smaller disruptions raise inflation sharply in the near term but have more muted effects by the fourth quarter…
