The International Monetary Fund has revised down its growth outlook for Turkey in its latest World Economic Outlook, lowering the 2026 expansion forecast to 3.4% from 4.2% previously. The reduction reflects weaker-than-expected activity in 2025 and the additional drag from higher oil and gas costs, the Fund said.
In numerical terms, the IMF trimmed its 2026 forecast by 0.8 percentage points relative to the January 2026 outlook contained in the earlier report. The multilateral lender also pared back its projection for 2027, cutting the expected growth rate to 3.5% from the 4.1% it had projected earlier.
The Fund noted explicitly that "2025 growth was weaker than expected and higher oil and gas prices weigh on activity." In January, the IMF had forecast 2025 growth of 4.1%, but more recent official figures released in March showed actual expansion of just 3.6% for that year.
The report links the deterioration in the outlook to a surge in energy costs. It states that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has pushed energy prices sharply higher, with oil trading above $100 a barrel despite a two-week ceasefire. Those elevated prices are highlighted as a particular vulnerability for economies that rely on energy imports, including Turkey.
On inflation, the IMF now expects consumer prices in Turkey to average 28.6% in 2026, before easing to 21.4% in 2027. This is a step up from the Fund's October estimate, which had projected 2026 inflation at 24.7%.
The current account outlook was also revised. The IMF forecasts a deficit equal to 2.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, narrowing modestly to 2.5% of GDP in 2027. By contrast, its October report had anticipated a much smaller deficit for 2026, predicting the current account shortfall would be 1.3% of GDP.
What the report makes clear - The IMF has adjusted both growth and macro balances for Turkey, reflecting recent official data and the impact of higher global energy prices on an import-reliant economy.