Overview
National Gas, the organisation responsible for operating Britain’s National Transmission System, released its 2026 Gas Summer Outlook on Tuesday and found that under current conditions the market is expected to have sufficient gas supply to meet forecast demand over the summer months.
Demand outlook
The report projects total gas demand for summer 2026 to be broadly comparable to the level seen in summer 2025. Within that overall figure, gas consumption for power generation is forecast to fall by around 6%, while domestic demand is expected to rise by approximately 2%.
Supply composition
National Gas anticipates that the majority of summer supply will come from UK Continental Shelf and Norwegian production. Together these sources are projected to provide about 86% of total supply, equivalent to 25.3 billion cubic meters, a volume that the outlook states exceeds forecast demand within Great Britain plus expected exports to Ireland of roughly 21.2 billion cubic meters.
The remaining supply is forecast to come from Great Britain’s flexible gas storage and liquefied natural gas imports. Flexible storage is estimated to account for around 5% of total supply, or about 1.5 billion cubic meters, while LNG imports are forecast to contribute roughly 9% of total supply, or about 2.7 billion cubic meters.
Network maintenance and readiness
A programme of summer maintenance is planned for the transmission system. This maintenance will include the isolation of some 460 miles of pipeline and will involve outages across all compressor sites as part of preparations for the winter 2026/27 season.
Geopolitical context and review
The forecast was prepared before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. National Gas subsequently revisited its analysis and concluded that the market is still expected to have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecast demand for the summer. The operator attributes this continued confidence to lower seasonal demand during the summer months and the diversity of supply sources available to Great Britain, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage.
"While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer," said Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, Director of Energy Systems and Resilience at National Gas.
Exports
National Gas expects Great Britain to export gas to continental Europe over the summer, with export forecasts described as broadly in line with last year.
This outlook presents National Gas's assessment of supply and demand dynamics for the summer months under current conditions and following a targeted review after geopolitical developments.