UBS analysts say market pricing of future policy-rate increases could be exaggerated after a spike in yields linked to a global energy shock. The bank points to complex yield-curve dynamics since February that make it difficult to determine whether moves at the short end of the curve reflect tighter policy expectations or simply higher risk premiums demanded by investors in response to geopolitical strains.
According to UBS, a bear flattening of yield curves - where short-term yields rise faster than long-term yields - has clouded the interpretation of short-term rate moves. The bank notes that such flattening complicates the task of attributing the rise in short-term yields to central bank tightening expectations versus a premium for geopolitical risk.
UBS highlights that two-year yields across G10 rates markets have climbed by about 40 basis points on average since February. The bank's modelling suggests that much of this increase is consistent with expectations for tighter policy rates. At the same time, UBS cautions that the mechanical behavior of its models during a bear flattening episode could exaggerate the degree to which policy expectations have actually shifted.
Following the global energy shock, UBS observes that many yield curves have become upward sloping. Despite this, the bank judges that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are more likely to postpone cutting rates down to neutral levels than to raise rates further this year, given current conditions related to the Middle East conflict.
UBS's economists have responded to the evolving outlook by trimming their projections for UK economic growth. They reduced the forecast for this year by 50 basis points, taking it to 0.6%, and cut next year's forecast by 30 basis points, to 1.1%.
The bank expects that meetings of the International Monetary Fund this week will provide more clarity on how central bankers are interpreting market-implied policy paths. UBS specifically says the tone from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde could have a material effect on G10 rates markets, with potential influence concentrated at the front end of yield curves.
Context limitation: UBS's observations are drawn from its models and recent market behavior; the firm highlights uncertainty about how much of the yield moves reflect policy expectations versus risk-premium changes.