A Reuters poll of 30 economists conducted between June 18 and June 22 shows a unanimous expectation that Mexico's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% at its policy meeting on June 25.
Banxico implemented what it characterized as its final rate cut last month, bringing to an end a sequence of modest reductions amid concerns over mixed consumer price trends and tepid economic activity. According to the poll, all 30 economists expect the bank to maintain the current policy rate at the upcoming meeting.
Inflation dynamics remain central to the bank's decision-making. While headline consumer price inflation slowed in May, that deceleration followed a spike earlier in 2026 that was driven by higher prices for vegetables and fruit. In May, consumer price increases decelerated to an annual rate of 3.94%, while the central measure of underlying inflation - the core index - stood at 4.19%.
Banxico's formal target for headline inflation is 3% plus or minus one percentage point. In this context, the persistence of elevated core inflation has been a primary consideration for monetary policy, even as headline figures eased slightly in the most recent month.
Mexico is Latin America's second-largest economy. Reflecting caution about near-term prospects, Banxico recently revised down its economic growth projection for this year to 1.1% from a prior forecast of 1.6% and highlighted uncertainty tied to the ongoing review of the USMCA trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico.
The combination of still-elevated core inflation, a slowdown in headline inflation following earlier volatility in food prices, and weaker growth expectations underlines why market forecasters in the poll expect the central bank to pause policy tightening at the June meeting.
Implications and monitoring points
- Monetary policy on hold would preserve the current path for borrowing costs until new inflation or growth signals emerge.
- Policymakers are likely to continue watching core price measures and developments related to the USMCA review for guidance on future rate moves.