Goldman Sachs analysts say fears that artificial intelligence could upend long-term corporate expansion have prompted renewed investor attention to the portion of stock valuations that rests on profits expected more than a decade ahead.
According to Goldman, profits projected beyond the 10-year horizon - commonly referred to as terminal value - now represent about 75% of the S&P 500's equity value, a share the firm describes as close to a 25-year peak. "Today’s share of value in the terminal value is elevated versus history and mirrors other periods where investor long-term growth expectations were increasingly optimistic, including the dotcom boom," Goldman said in a note on Thursday.
The note links increasing investor concern about AI disruption to recent product launches, noting that Anthropic introduced tools that automate tasks across areas such as marketing and data analytics. Those tools have raised questions about the potential pressure they could place on incumbent software providers' future revenue and margins.
Market reaction to those concerns has been evident in performance within technology subsectors: the S&P 500 software and services index has fallen roughly 17% so far this year, a decline Goldman attributes broadly to investor worries that new AI tools could erode future revenue growth and profit margins for traditional software firms.
Goldman quantifies the sensitivity of valuations to long-term growth assumptions. The firm estimates that a one percentage point reduction in assumed long-term growth would lower the combined enterprise value of S&P 500 companies by about 15%. The effect is concentrated among high-growth names, where valuations could dip about 29% under the same scenario, compared with a roughly 10% decline for low-growth equities. "The value of a high-growth company is especially sensitive to changes in its long-term growth outlook," Goldman added.
The analysts expect the debate over AI-driven disruption - and the resulting uncertainty about many companies' terminal values - to persist for at least several quarters. "The threat of disruption will likely represent a persistent overhang until later stages of AI adoption," they wrote.
Goldman also flagged a communication gap between companies and investors on long-term prospects. In recent quarterly earnings calls, only about 5% of S&P 500 firms discussed financial metrics that extended beyond five years. "We think more managements should prioritize discussions of the long-term outlook (to investors)," Goldman said, urging executives to provide greater clarity around multi-year assumptions.
Takeaway: Goldman Sachs warns that a large portion of current equity valuations is linked to long-term profit expectations, and that AI-related disruption concerns may force investors to reassess those assumptions, with disproportionate effects on high-growth companies.