The substantial copper inventory sitting in U.S. Comex warehouses is likely to shrink in the near term as local demand materializes, according to the chief executive of German copper producer Aurubis.
Comex warehouses currently hold 532,000 metric tons of copper - roughly a quarter of annual U.S. consumption - after traders shifted metal to the United States last year amid concerns over potential tariffs. Inventories briefly peaked near 546,000 tons in February and have not, to date, shown a large decline. Market incentives to move metal to Comex reopened last week with an arbitrage opportunity to ship copper into the exchange.
"I think it’s a security of supply issue," Aurubis CEO Toralf Haag said. "But in my opinion, the stocks will decrease over the next months through strong local demand." Haag declined to provide an estimate for where inventories might sit at the end of 2026.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Copper Conference in Santiago, Haag outlined Aurubis' U.S. project timetable. The company expects to complete the second phase of its recycling plant in Richmond, Georgia - adding capacity equivalent to 90,000 tons per year - by the end of September.
A previously planned decision, targeted for the northern hemisphere summer, about whether to expand the Richmond facility, build an additional recycling plant elsewhere in the United States or construct a primary copper smelter will now most likely be made by the end of 2026, Haag said.
Haag noted shifts in demand across Aurubis' customer base. The company has experienced a "certain downturn" from some customers related to the Iran war and has seen lower demand from Germany's weakened automotive sector. Those reductions have been partially offset by stronger consumption in other industries such as power and construction.
He pointed to data centres as an important incremental source of copper demand, estimating that 1,000 planned new data centres globally would each require between 20,000 and 30,000 tons of copper.
Aurubis has also reported increased enquiries for sulphuric acid, driven by shortages linked to the conflict. The company produces about 2 million tons per year of sulphuric acid at its smelting operations in Hamburg and in Bulgaria. "We are getting enquiries from all around the world and also from players we haven’t done business with before," Haag said, while noting that long-term sales contracts limit how much Aurubis can immediately benefit from higher acid prices and that available spot volumes are constrained.
Implications and context
The company's comments underline two near-term dynamics: a potential drawdown of large Comex stocks as U.S. end-use demand strengthens, and the steady build-out of recycling capacity in the United States. Aurubis' timeline for a final investment decision on further U.S. footprint expansion has been pushed into 2026, reflecting a more measured approach to capital allocation in the region.