Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,128 total articles
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s commanding election victory has strengthened her hand to pursue reflationary policies, reinvigorating a market dynamic known as the 'Takaichi trade' that has driven Japanese equities to fresh highs while pushing up government bond yields and weakening the yen. Investors now face a pivotal question: will political mom…
BCA Research warns that the U.S. residential housing market is unlikely to become a growth engine for the economy in 2026. Despite a decline in mortgage rates, residential investment was a mild drag on growth in 2025, housing starts fell to a five-year low in October 2025, and affordability pressures continue to restrain prices and sales.
Deutsche Bank Research analysts say a long-standing positive link between U.S. economic growth and hiring has weakened since the pandemic. From 2002 to 2019, hiring and growth moved closely together, with an 84% correlation; that relationship has faltered in recent years and its resolution could influence Federal Reserve decisions on rates and vote…
U.S. customs duty collections have fallen since October, slipping roughly 11% by late January on an annualized basis. While headline receipts retreated from an October high, economists warn that seasonal import patterns, targeted rate cuts and shifting port activity make it difficult to conclude that the decline reflects weakening import demand.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced sanctions on foreign manufacturers supplying critical components for Russian missiles and drones, signing decrees that single out firms in China, former Soviet states, the United Arab Emirates and Panama. The measures also extend to Russian financial entities and organizations linked to the crypto market and …
Concerns that the U.S. dollar is on the verge of a swift and sustained debasement appear exaggerated, according to market evidence cited by Bank of America. While the currency remains under longer-term pressure and has been volatile, asset flows, options positioning and macro indicators do not yet point to a structural shift away from U.S. assets. …
Japan holds a national election with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s conservative coalition favored to expand its lower house foothold. Polls point to a substantial gain in seats for the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Ishin, while fiscal plans to suspend food sales tax, youth turnout and tensions with China present pivotal uncertainties f…
Japanese voters headed to the polls amid heavy snowfall in a rare February election that opinion polls indicate could deliver a decisive majority to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's conservative coalition. The vote presents potential implications for fiscal and defence policy, currency markets and the balance of power between the lower and upper cha…
South Africa’s central bank governor said the country would welcome newly proposed European Central Bank repo lines, noting such facilities would reinforce trade and investment flows from Europe. He also reiterated that South Africa’s interest-rate easing cycle is not yet complete, with policymakers watching inflation and exchange-rate developments…
Hungary’s centre-right Tisza party published a 240-page election programme pledging a 1% annual wealth tax on fortunes above 1 billion forints, plans to adopt the euro, and a strategy to end reliance on Russian energy by 2035 while expanding renewables and reviewing a Russian-built nuclear project. The programme also promises immediate overhauls to…
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said Turkey will preserve a tight monetary policy and maintain fiscal discipline as authorities aim to bring consumer prices lower. January saw a sharper-than-anticipated monthly jump in consumer prices, while officials signalled the need for further supply-side measures even as rates have been cut in recent months.
Brad Karp, who led Paul Weiss from a respected New York litigation shop to a global legal powerhouse, resigned as chairman after Justice Department disclosures revealed extensive communications with the late financier Jeffrey Epstein. His resignation follows a turbulent period that began with the 2024 presidential election and included a controvers…
Across five speeches on the economy since December, the president repeatedly claimed inflation was defeated and prices were coming down, but those assertions contrast with persistent price increases for many grocery items, modest declines in headline inflation, and voter sentiment showing unease about the cost of living. Republican strategists warn…
Morgan Stanley analysts warn that a slowdown in U.S. population growth - driven primarily by reduced immigration - could pull the country’s potential economic output down toward pre-pandemic rates. Census Bureau data show the slowest rise in population since 2021, and the bank’s economists say absent faster productivity gains the pace of potential …
India's recently concluded free-trade agreement with the European Union grants preferential treatment across the vast majority of EU tariff lines and nearly the entire bilateral trade value, according to ING Economics. Economists view the pact as a potential inflection point in India's external trade orientation as regional supply chains are being …
The White House issued an executive order on Feb. 6 establishing the "America First Arms Transfer Strategy," directing federal agencies to shift U.S. weapons sales toward partners that spend more on defense and hold strategic importance in their regions. The order aims to speed delivery of U.S.-made systems to prioritized allies and to use foreign …
SpaceX has told investors it will put a crewed lunar return ahead of an immediate Mars mission, aiming for an uncrewed landing on the moon in March 2027 and delaying its previously stated plan to reach Mars by the end of 2026. The announcement follows a major corporate deal that set valuations for the rocket and satellite firm and an affiliated art…
The developer of Notepad++ and multiple cybersecurity firms reported that a long-active, Chinese-linked cyberespionage group compromised the software's update delivery to install a custom backdoor and other malware on a subset of users. The intrusion began in June 2025, with access to the update server lasting until September 2, 2025, and some cred…
The United States and India released an interim trade framework that outlines tariff reductions, deeper economic cooperation and adjustments to energy trade as both governments seek to realign supply chains and deepen strategic economic ties. The joint statement reaffirms commitment to negotiate a broader bilateral trade agreement while leaving key…
The White House has issued an executive order eliminating a 25% Russia-related surcharge on Indian goods, effective Feb. 7, as part of a broader trade and security framework that ties tariff changes to India’s commitments to reduce ties with Russian energy and expand defense cooperation with the United States. The arrangement introduces a new recip…
President Donald Trump issued an executive order rescinding a 25% punitive duty on all imports from India, the White House said. The action follows a trade agreement that reduced U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and included provisions tied to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil and the lowering of trade barriers.
Market liquidity in recent months appears driven more by activity in derivatives markets and speculative short-volatility strategies than by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report. While the Fed injected massive liquidity at the start of the COVID-19 crisis and expanded its balance sheet through 2022, the …
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said she is open to one or two more interest rate reductions to address growing strains in the labor market. While she backed the Fed's recent decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, Daly warned that weakening job market signals - including difficulty for recent graduates and real wa…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said she is open to one or two interest rate cuts to address strains in the labor market, noting workers are facing shrinking real wages and fewer job opportunities. Daly supported the recent decision to hold the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% but said there was a case for trimming policy further if inf…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told senators that President Donald Trump was speaking in jest when he suggested he might sue his Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates are not cut. Bessent made the clarification during questioning at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and cited a prior CNBC interview in which he said t…
