Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,178 total articles
Barclays Research has trimmed its euro area growth outlook for 2026 to 1.1% from 1.5% in 2025, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict and tighter financial conditions. The bank expects the European Central Bank to keep its deposit rate at 2% at the March 19 meeting, and it now forecasts headline inflation at 2.4% this year before easing to 2…
European equities made modest gains on Monday as Commerzbank shares climbed following a 30% stake bid from UniCredit. Defence and energy stocks rose amid escalating Middle East tensions and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also watching a week of central bank meetings in major economies for guidance on interest-rat…
Citigroup trimmed its Nifty 50 valuation multiple to 19 times one-year forward earnings from 20 times and set a December 2026 Nifty target of 27,000. The bank cautioned that a second-week Middle East conflict centered on a Strait of Hormuz blockade - with ship traffic falling as much as 90% - risks shaving up to 30 basis points from India’s economi…
Barclays economists say recent U.S. data show weaker demand late last year but signs of resilience entering 2026. Persistent core inflation and upside risks from oil and geopolitics lead the bank to expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady at its upcoming meeting and to delay the first rate cut until September 2026.
Citi now expects the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, removing an April cut from its previous path. The bank has pushed its terminal rate forecast to 3.25% with cuts pencilled in for June and September, citing rising uncertainty from a fresh energy shock linked to conflict in…
Rising energy prices tied to the war in the Middle East are forcing central banks worldwide to reassess the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Policymakers from the United States to Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia and emerging markets enter a week of meetings with markets increasingly uncertain about the path of policy after oil held above …
Once a leading refuge for investors, the Japanese yen has struggled to appreciate during the recent conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Structural shifts in Japan’s economy, exposure to oil shocks, and changing interest-rate dynamics have diminished the yen’s automatic safe-haven appeal, leaving markets to probe whether authorities…
The Bank of England is set to delay a planned reduction in Bank Rate as policymakers weigh the inflationary risks from the conflict in the Middle East. With oil near $100 a barrel and gas prices elevated, the Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to vote to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% at its March meeting. Economists now see inflation ending 202…
The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of Asian trading, with initial claims of a forthcoming multinational naval escort agreement giving way to reports that President Trump has only spoken to seven countries and secured no commitments. Concerns over the strait's effective throttling have prompted export controls on refined fuels across sever…
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at the close of a two-day policy meeting, while reiterating a bias toward additional rate increases. A weaker yen and an abrupt surge in oil following the U.S.-Israel war on Iran have intensified inflationary risks for Japan's import-dependent economy, complicating …
Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at the end of a two-day meeting on March 17, taking the cash rate to 4.10% after February's increase. Forecasters point to resurgent consumer inflation, a strong domestic economy and energy-market pressures linked to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran as drivers …
Economists polled expect Taiwan’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate at 2% at its upcoming quarterly meeting and to maintain that stance into at least the second quarter of 2027. Robust economic expansion, led by the technology and export sectors and supported by demand tied to artificial intelligence, has reduced near-term pressure to t…
The dollar remained close to a 10-month peak as markets entered a week dense with central bank policy meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. Traders are focused on how the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices could influence inflation and growth, while risk dynamics ripple across currencies such as the euro, sterling, the yen and anti…
President Donald Trump said discussions are under way with other countries to cooperate in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran maintains the blockade in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks. Trump described the effort as modest in scope, repeated calls for China to act, and said U.S. strikes have degraded Iran's drone capabilities. Oil ma…
President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could delay a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping as he pushes Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran effectively blocked the waterway amid recent hostilities. The comments followed high-level U.S.-China talks in Paris and come as Iran signaled it will keep the strait…
The U.S. administration plans to reveal as soon as this week that several countries have agreed to form a naval escort coalition to protect commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials. The move follows significant disruption to tanker traffic in the waterway during ongoing hostilities involving Iran and comes as …
Goldman Sachs analysts say a spike in oil tied to the Iran conflict and interruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could subtract about 0.3% from global growth over the next year and raise headline inflation by roughly 0.5-0.6 percentage points, with a smaller impact on core inflation of 0.1-0.2 percentage points. The bank views t…
UBS cautions that recent market turbulence driven by geopolitical tensions and higher commodity prices is not, by itself, a sound reason for investors to abandon equities. The bank highlights historical patterns showing routine intra-year drawdowns, a high incidence of positive calendar years, and instances where volatility spikes preceded above-av…
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Asia-Pacific allies reached $57 billion in agreements with American energy companies at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo, covering 22 separate deals. The total was revised up from $56 billion after a post-conference agreement. Burgum emphasized efforts to expand U.S. energy exports to reduce r…
Analysts at Bank of America estimate that European insurers hold roughly 11% of their general account assets in private credit and private equity combined, with private lending at about 7% and private equity near 4%. When mortgages and real estate are counted, private asset allocations rise to about 27%, though much of that comprises higher-quality…
The International Energy Agency reported that governments have committed 271.7 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to alleviate pressure on global crude markets. The move follows supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict that have disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically carries about 20% of the wo…
Morgan Stanley economists say that while a short-lived rise in oil and gasoline prices may have only a limited effect on overall U.S. spending today, a sustained disruption that keeps energy costs elevated would shave consumer purchasing power and likely reduce spending on durables and discretionary services. The burden would fall unevenly across h…
Gulf equity indices mostly closed lower on Sunday as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its third week, triggering concerns over regional stability and energy flows. Attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted crude prices, producing mixed moves among major Gulf-listed names. Market declines extended beyon…
Investors enter a pivotal week with Federal Reserve policymakers meeting for the first time since U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran began, confronting how the resulting surge in oil prices and market volatility may alter expectations for interest-rate cuts this year. The Fed will release updated economic projections and host a press conference t…
A Bernstein report warns that the United States - currently the most 'overstored' developed market - may see between 2 billion and 6 billion square feet of retail space become redundant as online shopping captures a larger share of consumer spending. Retailers and developers are expected to close, repurpose or convert many locations into alternativ…
