ATHENS/ROME, April 24 - New fiscal projections and confidential estimates point to a change in the ranking of the euro zone's most indebted countries, with Greece set to fall behind Italy in terms of public debt as a share of gross domestic product.
Two senior officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told officials that Greece's public-debt-to-GDP ratio is now estimated to decline to about 137% this year, down from 145.9% recorded in 2025. Those officials said the revised estimate will be included in Greece's multi-year fiscal plan, which is due to be submitted to the European Commission at the end of the month.
By contrast, Italy's Treasury, in the multi-year budget plan published this week, projects its own debt to peak at 138.6% of GDP in 2026. That would represent an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% in 2025 under the plan's baseline. Italy's debt trajectory in the document shows relative stability in the near term - roughly 138.5% in 2027 - followed by a gradual decline to 137.9% in 2028 and to 136.3% in the subsequent year.
The shift, as sketched by the confidential Greek estimates and Italy's formal budget plan, would mean that Greece ceases to hold the euro zone's top public-debt ratio position this year.
Greece has registered a marked fall in its public-debt burden over recent years. The country's ratio, which was the highest in the euro zone for much of the past two decades, narrowed by more than 60 percentage points to 145.9% of GDP last year from a peak of 209.4% in 2020. Over the same interval, Italy reduced its debt ratio by about 17 percentage points.
As part of its fiscal operations this year, Greece plans to prepay roughly 7 billion euros of loans originating from its first bailout. That move is scheduled for later in the year and is included among measures influencing the country's debt outlook.
Political commentary on Italy's trajectory appears in the budget debate. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has argued that Italy's debt would have started falling sooner and more rapidly if not for the impact of state-funded building incentives introduced under former administrations led by Giuseppe Conte and Mario Draghi. The budget plan itself frames Italy's medium-term outlook against a backdrop of subdued growth.
After a strong rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy has reverted to lower growth rates. The country logged three consecutive years of sub-1% growth from 2023 through 2025 despite sizeable inflows from EU pandemic recovery funds. The Treasury's multi-year plan indicates that this pattern of weak growth is expected to continue through 2029.
Greece, by contrast, has seen steadier expansion, with its economy growing by more than 2% annually over the last three years. That pace has exceeded the EU average and has been supported by investment, domestic demand and tourism.
Currency reference: $1 = 0.8560 euros.