The International Monetary Fund has increased its estimate for Russia's economic growth in 2026 to 1.1%, up from an earlier 0.8% projection, attributing the upward revision to firmer prices for oil and other commodities following a crisis in the Middle East.
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that higher commodity prices account for a 0.3 percentage point upward adjustment in the 2026 forecast compared with its January outlook. The fund also projected that Russia would register another 1.1% growth rate in 2027, indicating the same momentum would continue into the following year.
The report comes after a pronounced slowdown in 2025, when growth decelerated to roughly 1% from 4.9% in 2024. The IMF and the report highlight several domestic and external factors restraining the economy: the central bank's tight monetary stance, the impact of Western sanctions, and fiscal pressure tied to spending on the war in Ukraine.
Russia's economic fortunes shifted when oil prices moved higher after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz - a key artery for global oil shipments - in response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28. Oil is Russia's principal export commodity, and the jump in prices has supported the IMF's more optimistic outlook for 2026.
Separate fiscal considerations complicate the picture. The Russian government has not yet received some of the additional revenue from commodity-related taxes linked to the recent price spike, and officials signalled they may lower the government's own 1.3% growth forecast when they review projections later this month.
Market watchers polled by Reuters last month anticipated 0.8% growth for the year. Recent monthly data show GDP contracting year-on-year by 2.1% in January and by 1.5% in February, figures that underscore the uneven near-term performance of the economy despite the IMF's upward revision for 2026.