The travel industry is undergoing a structural shift in how customers are acquired as suppliers and AI platforms pursue direct connections that could sideline traditional intermediaries. Market attention today remains focused on geopolitical risks affecting online travel agency shares, but the potential for artificial intelligence to reshape distribution looms as a significant longer-term factor.
Analysts at Bernstein caution that a fully AI-driven commercial model has not yet emerged, but they say the sector is positioning for a contest over how travel will be distributed in the future.
Suppliers moving onto AI platforms
Several large hotel groups, including Accor, Hyatt and Wyndham, are actively embedding themselves into AI platforms with the goal of reducing customer-acquisition costs. By creating a presence on conversational interfaces such as ChatGPT, these suppliers aim to avoid the high commission rates typically paid to online travel agencies.
Supporting this transition, hotel technology firms are connecting property inventory directly to AI systems. Industry data show that roughly 75% of hotel volumes already flow through channel managers, and an increasing number of independent hotels are becoming able to hook up to AI-enabled distribution channels. That dynamic threatens to erode the traditional dominance of major OTAs.
Revenue models will determine winners and losers
The ultimate effect of AI on OTAs hinges on which monetization approach becomes dominant. If AI platforms adopt an advertising-supported model, OTAs could preserve their role by paying for paid placement, effectively maintaining take rates in a manner similar to legacy search engines.
By contrast, subscription or user-funded approaches, exemplified by services such as Perplexity, present a greater disruption. Those models can operate without charging commissions to suppliers, potentially giving rise to a "0% take rate" environment and the possibility of full disintermediation of classical OTA business models.
OTAs' defense and the trust variable
In response to these developments, large OTAs like Booking and Expedia are emphasizing a perceived "trust gap," citing surveys and reports indicating that most travelers do not yet trust AI to complete bookings. Analysts warn this defensive posture may rest on a transitory sentiment; they note that public trust in AI is likely to grow as conversational tools become more embedded in routine tasks.
Market tools and advisory notes
Industry services are already marketing analytical products to track these shifts. For example, a sector-tracking research product is promoted at a 50% discount to help monitor travel trends. Separately, AI-driven equity screening tools evaluate companies across hundreds of financial metrics to identify investment ideas, sometimes highlighting specific stocks and comparing opportunities within a sector.
For now, the travel distribution landscape is in flux: short-term volatility driven by geopolitical issues coexists with a strategic repositioning around AI-enabled acquisition that could, over time, reconfigure revenue flows between suppliers, technology platforms and intermediaries.