Goldman Sachs has raised its price outlook for Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing weaker oil production across the Middle East. The bank now expects Brent to average $90 per barrel in Q4 2026 and WTI to average $83 per barrel in the same period.
Goldman also revised its timeline for flows through the Strait of Hormuz, saying exports are likely to normalise by the end of June rather than the mid-May window it had previously anticipated. The bank noted a slower-than-expected recovery in Gulf oil output alongside the later reopening of the strait.
Other major financial institutions have also updated their forecasts for 2026. Citi raised its Brent outlook for the remainder of 2026, setting a base case of $110 per barrel in Q2 2026, $95 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $80 per barrel in Q4 2026. Citi additionally outlined a bull-case scenario in which oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted through the end of June, a scenario under which Brent could spike to $150 per barrel.
Market participants moved oil prices slightly higher on Monday as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, keeping global supplies tight.
Brokerage price snapshots and guidance (as reported):
- Goldman Sachs - Q4 2026: Brent $90, WTI $83; also listed forecasts showing 2027 values of Brent $85 and WTI $80 in the same reporting table dated April 26.
- Citi - Raised 2026 Brent price forecast to $110/bbl in Q2’26, $95/bbl in Q3’26 and $80/bbl in Q4’26; bull case sees Brent to $150/bbl if Hormuz flows stay disrupted through end-June.
- ANZ - Table entries list Brent $92 and $88 in portions of 2026 with WTI entries $76 and $76, dated April 9.
- UBS - In its April 13 note, UBS flagged an outcome where Brent could exceed $150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted; UBS sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-September and $90 by end-December.
- Macquarie - Table lists Brent and WTI figures including $89.28 and $82.9 for portions of 2026, and a comment dated March 27 stating that if the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200.
- Morgan Stanley - Listed a forecast showing Brent around $80 and noted an expectation on March 24 that 2026 Brent prices would remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026.
- J.P. Morgan - Expected 2026 Brent to average $100/bbl in Q2’26, $90/bbl in Q3’26 and $80/bbl in Q4’26 (note dated March 20).
- Standard Chartered - Table entry shows $85.50 and included commentary expecting Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1’26 and $98/bbl in Q2’26.
- Bank of America - Entries show Brent forecasts including $77.50 and $61 in table positions, with a March 16 note expecting Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2’26 and $76/bbl in Q3’26.
- Barclays - Table shows $85 and a March 13 note that if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise the forecast could assume Brent climbing to $100/bbl.
- BMI - Table lists forecasts around $70 and $68 for parts of 2026, with a March 12 note expecting Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4’26 respectively.
- HSBC - Table entries include a sequence of 2026 figures around $80, $76 and $67 with a March 10 notation in the reporting table.
These bank-level shifts and scenario analyses underscore the sensitivity of near-term oil prices to developments in the Strait of Hormuz and broader Gulf production recoveries. Several institutions explicitly condition elevated price outcomes on the duration of disruptions to flows through the strait.
What the market reaction showed
Short-term price moves reflected the persistence of supply-side risks. The article noted a modest uptick in oil as diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran stalled, while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained. No further causal claims were introduced beyond the constraints and stalled talks described.
Impacted sectors
- Energy producers and oil markets - price forecasts directly affect revenue expectations and hedging decisions.
- Shipping and maritime logistics - flows through the Strait of Hormuz are central to seaborne crude movements.
- Financial markets - broker forecasts influence trader positioning and risk assessments across commodity derivatives.