Oil markets experienced sharp intraday swings on Friday, closing the session mixed but materially higher on the week as participants balanced immediate supply worries against signs that diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran may resume.
Benchmarks and weekly performance - Brent crude futures settled at $105.33 a barrel, up $0.26, or about 0.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended at $94.40 a barrel, down $1.45, or roughly 1.5%. For the week, Brent rose about 16% while WTI climbed nearly 13%.
Newsflow drove reversals - Prices initially gave back early gains after a report said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the United States following the collapse of conversations earlier in the week. Further downward pressure followed a report that U.S. President Donald Trump was sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for discussions with Iran’s foreign minister. Later, President Trump told Reuters that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands, saying, "They’re making an offer and we’ll have to see."
Earlier in the trading session, markets had reacted nervously to the prospect of renewed military escalation. Prices rose roughly 2% on those initial fears after Iran released footage showing commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, while progress toward re-opening the key shipping lane stalled.
Traders adjust positions ahead of uncertainty - "Traders are liquidating length ahead of an unusually unpredictable weekend and will readjust their positions Sunday night based on Iranian developments," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, describing how market participants moved to reduce exposure amid heightened weekend event risk.
Strait of Hormuz and shipping - Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked. Prior to the conflict, the waterway carried roughly a fifth of global oil output. Iran’s capture of two cargo ships underscored the challenges Washington faces in trying to control passage through the Strait. Shipping data showed only five vessels, including an Iranian oil products tanker, transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
Statements from the U.S. president and commentary - On Thursday, President Trump said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during a two-week ceasefire, while adding that the U.S. military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks.
Oil consultant Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates commented on the market implications of the diplomatic impasse, saying, "As tensions have heightened this week since no meeting between the U.S. and Iran developed, an open-ended ceasefire will likely coincide with a continued conflict. This favors even higher prices especially in Brent and diesel, the more sensitive markets to a continuation of this war."
Adding to the range of possible near-term outcomes, Haitong Futures warned in a report that if peace talks fail to make progress by the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year.
Market takeaway - The session illustrated the tug-of-war between tangible supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for diplomatic progress that could limit those disruptions. Traders shortened positions ahead of weekend uncertainty, while prices over the week reflected a market sensitive to disruptions in maritime supply routes and to statements from political leaders and analysts.
Summary
Oil futures ended a volatile session mixed, with Brent modestly higher and WTI lower, after market-moving reports about possible U.S.-Iran talks and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Both benchmarks posted strong weekly gains as concerns over supply dominated market direction despite intermittent diplomatic signals.