U.S. stocks have trailed their European and Asia-Pacific counterparts so far this year, driven largely by softness in Technology and Financials, but Barclays strategists argue that the relative weakness does not invalidate a constructive view on American equities.
In a report led by strategists including Venu Krishna, the bank highlights what it sees as structural advantages for the U.S., notably a stronger capacity to absorb the energy shock stemming from the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, Barclays says Europe and APAC markets are more exposed to that shock.
Sector performance within the United States has been mixed. Healthcare and Financials have been among the drags on returns, while Energy, Materials, and Industrials have benefited from higher commodity prices. The small-cap segment has outperformed larger stocks this year, with the small-cap index up roughly 10% year to date.
Barclays also points to fund flow patterns as supporting evidence of continued investor confidence in U.S. assets. According to the bank, equity funds focused on the United States have collected over $100 billion in inflows year to date, whereas emerging market equity funds have experienced nearly $40 billion of outflows over the same period.
On the earnings front, the strategists say the outlook favors the U.S. market. They expect S&P 500 earnings per share growth to outpace sales growth in coming quarters, which the bank interprets as a signal of improving operating leverage. Barclays further notes that full-year 2026 EPS revisions in the U.S. are running well ahead of the past decade's pattern, currently up about 9.4% at a point in the calendar when estimates are typically trimmed by 1.1%.
The bank draws attention to a composition effect in cross-region EPS comparisons. Consensus forecasts show FY26 EPS growth in the S&P 500 leading Europe but trailing APAC. Barclays argues this masks the role of margin expansion - largely led by Technology - which has materially outpaced other regions. When Technology is excluded, S&P earnings growth is closer to parity with Europe but remains meaningfully below APAC.
Valuation dynamics are another anchor of Barclays' stance. After recent declines, U.S. equities now sit near the 70th percentile of their 10-year valuation history, a level that the bank characterizes as broadly comparable to APAC and below Europe. Within that aggregate, the report identifies Industrials and Communications Services as the most stretched sectors relative to the S&P 500. By contrast, large Technology companies - "Big Tech" - appear inexpensive versus their own history, trading near the 14th percentile.
Weighing these elements together - superior margins in U.S. corporates, greater resilience to energy-driven demand shocks, and a valuation backdrop that has eased from prior highs - Barclays concludes that the U.S. remains better positioned than global peers despite the recent relative underperformance, the strategists wrote.
For outcomes, Barclays sets a base-case year-end target for the S&P 500 at 7,650, implying roughly 7% upside from then-current levels. The bank's bull case is 8,200 and its bear case is 5,900.
Summary
Barclays maintains a constructive view on U.S. equities despite year-to-date lagging performance versus Europe and APAC, citing the U.S.'s capacity to withstand energy-related shocks, continued net inflows to U.S. equity funds, robust FY26 EPS revision trends, and valuation movements that leave some parts of the U.S. market attractively positioned relative to history.