Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,157 total articles
Economists in Brazil have raised their projection for the benchmark Selic rate at the end of 2027 to 11.25% from a prior forecast of 11%, citing inflationary pressure driven by robust domestic demand and an energy shock linked to the Iran war. A weekly central bank survey released on Monday also shows analysts expect inflation to remain above the 3…
Two major Wall Street banks have revised their Federal Reserve rate-cut timelines, moving expected easing significantly later after rising core inflation tied to energy costs and a still-robust labor market reduced the near-term case for policy loosening. Goldman Sachs delayed its last two cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, while Bank of America…
A Pepperstone research note dated Monday assigns a 20% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer survives current party unrest, and two 40% outcomes that would likely lead to leadership change. The firm warns these outcomes carry direct downside risk for sterling and a persistently higher yield premium on 10-year Gilts versus G7 peers, while options …
The Bank of Israel is not rushing to use foreign exchange intervention to counter the shekel's rally, Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said, adding that the strong currency is helping to restrain inflation. While up to two interest rate cuts by next March are still expected, the central bank remains cautious given lingering geopolitical uncertainty and …
Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced legislation to enable full government ownership of British Steel's Scunthorpe plant after efforts to sell the Chinese-owned business were unsuccessful. Any transfer of ownership would require a public interest test weighing national security, critical infrastructure and economic support. The move follows the go…
Iran's oil minister told state television that the country's oil production stayed steady over a 40-day period of conflict and that exports continued successfully. He acknowledged challenges following a U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian ports and said pre-planned countermeasures are being implemented, while declining to specify those measures.
The European Commission is engaged in separate conversations with US artificial intelligence developers OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI has proactively offered to grant the Commission access to its new AI model, while the Commission has held multiple meetings with Anthropic but has not yet reached discussions about model access, a spokesperson said.
The Czech central bank presented alternative macro scenarios linking potential monetary policy paths to different trajectories for energy prices. Models included higher- and lower-energy-price variants, an elevated-energy scenario tied to a closure of the Hormuz Strait, and a separate economic downturn case. The scenarios map onto three-month PRIBO…
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he wants an immediate, significant advance in the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union, aiming for concrete progress at this year's EU-UK summit on trade, the economy, defence and security. He urged setting aside past disputes but did not give a direct answer when asked whether he would rule…
An industry advocacy organization has called on the Trump administration to vet high-end artificial intelligence models for capabilities that could enable cyberattacks or weapons development before those models are publicly released, and to deny government contracts to companies whose systems fail such reviews. The group proposes mandatory standard…
A government advisory group asked the Bank of Japan to take corporate funding conditions into account when setting monetary policy, highlighting that goods shortages and rising prices may boost firms' financing needs. The request comes ahead of the BOJ's June 16 meeting after last month's split decision to keep policy unchanged and following a quar…
A New Delhi official said Monday that a US trade delegation is likely to travel to India for negotiations as the two governments continue working toward a bilateral trade agreement. Dates for the visit have not been set. The development follows an exchange of delegations in recent weeks and a preliminary deal reached in February, with negotiators n…
High-profile short seller Andrew Left faces a criminal trial in Los Angeles this week after federal prosecutors charged him with manipulating stock prices and defrauding investors through misleading public statements about his trading positions. Authorities allege Left made at least $16 million by promoting positions in companies including Nvidia a…
Four private-sector members of Japan's economic advisory panel told policymakers to weigh the risk that prolonged Middle East tensions could strain financing for small and midsize firms. Their proposals, sent to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, emphasize careful monitoring of inflation and funding conditions and call for broader fiscal in…
This week’s market calendar is dominated by a breakdown in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, fresh U.S. consumer price index data for April, President Trump’s long-awaited trip to China for talks with Xi Jinping, the scheduled end of Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair, and Cerebras Systems’ planned initial public offering under the ticker CBRS. Each …
European equities were largely flat on Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher and damped investor risk appetite. The STOXX 600 traded unchanged, while defence and luxury stocks led regional declines. Telecom names and select company-specific movers saw gains. Markets also weighed comments from an ECB official that signall…
U.S. equity futures edged lower after President Trump dismissed an Iranian response to a U.S. proposal to end the more-than-two-month conflict as "I don’t like it - TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Oil climbed as hopes for an immediate end to fighting dimmed. Traders are also watching an upcoming Trump visit to China and key U.S. consumer price data later in…
An outgoing member of South Korea's monetary policy board said the central bank should place primary emphasis on controlling inflation after the war in Iran pushed up oil prices. Shin Sung-hwan warned the bank must act to minimise spillovers from elevated crude costs, even if that imposes economic pain, and highlighted risks from a growth boost con…
Statistics Norway reported that core inflation - which excludes volatile energy prices and tax changes - climbed to 3.2% year-on-year in April from 3.0% in March, matching analyst expectations and the central bank's own projection. The result underlines continued inflationary pressure and follows a recent policy rate increase by Norges Bank to 4.25…
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, moving expected cuts from later this year to December 2026 and March 2027. The firm says elevated energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East war will keep core inflation nearer 3% year-over-year, and that only a combination of fading oil s…
Hopes that the Iran-U.S. confrontation would de-escalate faded after U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's weekend peace proposal "totally unacceptable." Markets reacted with higher oil and a stronger dollar, while equities were led by gains in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, notably in South Korea. Economic and corporate…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, who leaves office at the end of May, advised colleagues to exercise prudence when considering an anticipated interest rate hike at the June meeting, citing a weakening growth outlook and the need for more clarity on the conflict in Iran. Markets expect a rate increase on June 10-11 and possibly …
As the Australian government prepares to deliver its upcoming budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is navigating a complex economic landscape defined by high commodity prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a central bank focused on curbing inflation. While revenue windfalls from elevated commodity prices are expected to reduce the project…
In a recent interview with Japan's Nikkei, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), emphasized the necessity for nations to adopt disciplined fiscal policies. He warned that if government spending shifts from being targeted and temporary to becoming broad-based and persistent, it could significant…
The U.S. dollar climbed against a basket of major currencies during early Asian trading on Monday, fueled by a combination of robust domestic employment statistics and escalating geopolitical friction in the Middle East. Following President Donald Trump's dismissal of an Iranian peace offer, investors sought refuge in the greenback, while oil marke…
