Economy April 24, 2026 04:21 AM

Markets Stall as Middle East Truce Remains Fragile; Oil Above $100, Intel Jumps on AI Demand

U.S. futures tread water amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a mixed corporate earnings backdrop, while Intel rallies after raising revenue guidance

By Hana Yamamoto
Markets Stall as Middle East Truce Remains Fragile; Oil Above $100, Intel Jumps on AI Demand

U.S. equity futures were mixed as investors digested persistent oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, tentative ceasefire announcements involving Israel and Lebanon, and strong chip-sector results. Brent crude held above $100 a barrel, reinforcing inflation and growth concerns. In corporate headlines, Intel surged in after-hours trading after raising sales guidance on accelerating AI-related data center demand.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices elevated, with Brent at $106.30 and WTI at $96.77, affecting energy and inflation-sensitive sectors.
  • U.S. futures were mixed as investors balanced fragile ceasefire developments and a strong corporate reporting season, notably in semiconductors where Texas Instruments rallied and Intel raised guidance.
  • Consumer sentiment weakened sharply in April, with the University of Michigan preliminary index dropping to 47.6 from 53.3, signaling potential demand-side pressures for consumer-facing sectors.

U.S. stock-index futures hovered on both sides of unchanged as the trading week drew to a close, reflecting a market balancing act between geopolitical uncertainty and pockets of corporate strength. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices elevated, while optimism around semiconductor earnings and AI-driven data-center spending supported parts of the technology complex.


Futures show mixed direction

By 03:21 ET (07:21 GMT), U.S. futures were split: the Dow futures contract was down 58 points, or roughly 0.1%; S&P 500 futures were up 10 points, or about 0.1%; and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 172 points, or 0.6%. The main U.S. indexes had ended lower the prior session as hopes of a rapid, durable U.S.-Iran settlement faded and concerns about access through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on sentiment.

Investors nonetheless continued to find reasons for selective risk-taking amid a largely solid corporate reporting season. Chipmaker Texas Instruments was a notable standout in the previous session, with shares climbing more than 19% after reporting results and guidance that exceeded investor expectations. Strong returns in that name lifted other semiconductor stocks as well, reinforcing market focus on technology spending tied to artificial intelligence.

Demand for analog chips from data centers was singled out as a driver of Texas Instruments's outperformance, underlining the aggressive pace of technology expenditure directed at AI infrastructure. That dynamic has helped markets look past some economic and geopolitical headwinds related to the Middle East conflict, trimming losses that emerged when the Iran war intensified.


Ceasefire developments remain uncertain

President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended by three weeks following talks that included diplomatic representatives from both countries. The announcement came amid indications that the truce is fragile: representatives of Hezbollah were not present at the discussions, and exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah were reported in the hours before the president's statement.

Earlier in the week, the president also publicized an indefinite ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports. That blockade has prompted countermeasures from Tehran, which has moved to demonstrate control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks and the seizure of vessels in the waterway. The United States has similarly seized Iranian-flagged ships, and the president said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats that attempt to lay mines in the strait.

Amid that ongoing tension, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were scheduled to hold a press briefing at 8 a.m. Eastern time on Friday. The presence of senior defense officials underscores the continued focus on military and shipping security in the region.


Oil prices trend higher on constrained supply

With little indication that normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume soon, oil climbed back above the $100-a-barrel threshold, reviving concerns about broader inflation pressures and potential damage to global growth. At 03:57 ET, Brent crude futures were trading at $106.30 a barrel, up 1.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.0% to $96.77 a barrel. Both benchmarks remain well above levels seen before the outbreak of regional hostilities, sustaining worries about an energy shock.

Markets and policymakers are sensitive to the risk that restricted oil flows could broaden inflationary pressures and complicate central-bank efforts to balance growth and price stability. Analysts at ING highlighted the lack of clarity over the next phase of the Middle East conflict and suggested that inflationary pressures could be widening. Separately, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz presents an acute energy-security threat and urged governments to seek alternative sources of energy in response to the crisis.


Intel jumps on upbeat AI-driven outlook

In after-hours trading, Intel's shares leapt by more than 21% after the company forecast a notable increase in revenue driven by heightened AI-related demand in data centers. The company raised its current-quarter sales guidance to a range of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, a figure positioned well above analysts' expectations and cited as evidence of accelerating traction for Intel's products in AI workloads.

Although Intel has at times been portrayed as less central to the AI boom than some peers, demand for its central processing units has risen in recent months as AI firms search for the computing capacity required by advanced autonomous "agents." The firm has benefited from a reported 10% stake from the Trump administration, and has been named as a strategic partner alongside Tesla and SpaceX in a project that includes a chip-fabrication facility in Texas.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan was quoted as saying that efforts to bring AI closer to end users are "significantly increasing the need for Intel's CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings." That statement underpinned the company's decision to lift its sales guidance and contributed to the dramatic market reaction in extended trading.


Consumer sentiment remains weak

On the economic-data calendar, markets awaited the final April reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. A preliminary reading had already shown a sharp drop: the index fell to a record low of 47.6 in April from 53.3 in March, a decline that undershot analysts' forecasts.

The survey documented deterioration in sentiment across age, income, and political-party lines, although its responses were gathered before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced. Many respondents cited the Iran conflict as having contributed to "unfavorable changes to the economy," according to Joanne Hsu, Director of the Surveys of Consumers.


What to watch next

  • Market participants will be tracking developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any additional diplomatic progress that could affect oil flows and energy-security assessments.
  • Corporate earnings and guidance in the technology and semiconductor sectors will remain important, particularly as investors parse the extent to which AI-related capital spending is supporting revenue and margin trajectories.
  • Sentiment indicators, including the final University of Michigan consumer survey, may shed further light on consumer behavior and potential demand-side implications for growth and inflation.

The market's mixed posture reflects a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks that elevate commodity prices and inflation expectations, and pockets of corporate resilience, especially where firms are positioned to capture AI-driven infrastructure spending. For now, oil-price dynamics and semiconductor-sector updates appear to be the primary lenses through which investors are assessing near-term market risk and opportunity.

Risks

  • Persistent disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could sustain higher energy prices, increasing inflationary pressure and posing downside risk to growth - impacts energy, inflation-sensitive sectors, and central-bank policy considerations.
  • The fragility of regional ceasefires - including the absence of Hezbollah representatives at Israel-Lebanon talks and reported firing near the announcement - leaves the truce uncertain and heightens the risk of renewed hostilities - impacts geopolitically exposed markets and shipping-dependent industries.
  • Record-low consumer sentiment readings may translate into weaker consumption if pessimism persists, potentially weighing on consumer staples, discretionary sectors, and overall economic growth.

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