Northwest European gasoline refining margins retreated on Tuesday, slipping roughly $5.03 to close at $53.21 per barrel as crude oil prices pushed higher. The movement in margins coincided with active physical trades in the regional barge market.
Market participants reported around 6,000 metric tons of gasoline E5 barges transacted, with Exxon acting as a seller to Gunvor and Varo. In addition, about 6,000 metric tons of gasoline E10 barges changed hands, with Totsa selling to Varo and Exxon. During the Platts window, Shell completed the sale of an E5 barge to Trafigura.
Separately, the chief executive officer of Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery said fuel shortages are expected to persist well beyond the U.S. war with Iran. The executive attributed the extended disruption to damage at refineries and the subsequent need to rebuild stocks, indicating that supply recovery may take time as facilities are repaired and inventories are replenished.
Comments from an executive at Goldman Sachs highlighted the constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to that executive, oil product movements through the strait currently stand at 35% of pre-war levels. By comparison, crude oil flows are at 70% of pre-war levels, illustrating a larger reduction in product shipments than in crude cargoes.
The day’s activity in the barge market and the remarks from refinery and investment bank executives together paint a picture of a regional fuels market balancing higher crude inputs with ongoing logistical and supply constraints. Traders and refiners appear to be actively reallocating cargoes within Northwest Europe, while comments on refinery damage and low product flows signal potential for continued volatility in product availability.
Market context: Trading in E5 and E10 gasoline barges was the most visible sign of physical market activity on the day, with several major trading houses and refiners involved in swaps and sales. At the same time, public statements from industry figures emphasize that structural issues - namely damaged refinery capacity and depleted inventories - are likely to prolong supply tightness.