Stock Markets April 15, 2026 02:02 PM

US Petroleum Stocks Plunge Well Beyond Estimates, DOE Data Shows

DOE weekly report analyzed by Raymond James reveals a 14.5 million-barrel draw across crude, gasoline and distillates, with notable drops in imports and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

By Ajmal Hussain
US Petroleum Stocks Plunge Well Beyond Estimates, DOE Data Shows

Data from the Department of Energy’s weekly report, as analyzed by Raymond James, show U.S. petroleum inventories fell sharply last week. Combined stocks of crude oil, gasoline and distillates dropped by 14.5 million barrels, substantially exceeding consensus expectations. Key metrics including crude balances, gasoline and distillate draws, refinery utilization and imports all moved lower, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was reduced by 4.1 million barrels.

Key Points

  • Combined U.S. petroleum inventories fell 14.5 million barrels versus a consensus 4.3 million-barrel draw - impacts energy market pricing and supply-demand assessments.
  • Crude inventories decreased 5.1 million barrels despite forecasts for a 0.2 million-barrel build and a seasonal expectation of a 3.0 million-barrel draw - relevant to crude-focused trading and hedging strategies.
  • Refinery utilization and imports both fell - refinery utilization dropped to 89.6% from 92.0% and total petroleum imports averaged 6.7 million bpd down from 8.2 million bpd, affecting refinery operations and product availability.

Data from the Department of Energy's weekly report, as analyzed by Raymond James, indicate that U.S. petroleum inventories declined by more than analysts expected last week.


The combined total of crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks registered a draw of 14.5 million barrels, versus a consensus forecast calling for a 4.3 million-barrel reduction. The gap between the actual decline and the estimate reflects substantial moves across the main petroleum categories reported by the DOE.

Crude oil inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels. This outcome contrasted with analyst expectations that had anticipated a 0.2 million-barrel build and with the seasonal forecast of a 3.0 million-barrel draw. The report also shows a 4.1 million-barrel decrease in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week.

Product inventories were similarly lower. Gasoline supplies dropped 6.3 million barrels, a steeper decline than the consensus estimate for a 2.1 million-barrel draw. Distillate inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.4 million-barrel decrease.

Operational indicators in the DOE release moved lower as well. Refinery utilization retreated to 89.6% from 92.0% in the prior week. Total petroleum imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day, down from 8.2 million barrels per day the week before.

Market pricing expectations as reflected by the futures strip were reported alongside supply data. The 12-month futures strip stood at $79.33 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and $83.36 per barrel for Brent crude.


These figures together paint a picture of a week in which inventories across crude and refined products tightened more than the market consensus anticipated, while imports and refinery throughput both declined. The DOE's numbers, as interpreted by Raymond James, provide the raw supply and operational metrics that market participants use to assess short-term balances.

Risks

  • Lower refinery utilization introduces uncertainty around near-term product throughput and availability - this affects refiners and downstream fuel markets.
  • A notable reduction in imports creates uncertainty about immediate supply replenishment - this impacts traders and market participants monitoring inventory flows.
  • Draws larger than consensus, combined with a Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease, introduce uncertainty in market balances that market participants will monitor for price sensitivity.

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