A U.S. Army master sergeant who prosecutors say used privileged information from a military operation to profit from prediction-market wagers is due to appear in federal court in Manhattan to be asked how he pleads to fraud-related charges.
The defendant, identified in charging documents as 38-year-old Gannon Van Dyke, is scheduled to appear before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT). Federal prosecutors allege Van Dyke placed roughly $33,000 in bets on Polymarket between December 27, 2025, and January 2, 2026, predicting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would soon be out of office and that U.S. forces would enter Venezuela.
According to the indictment, markets at the time assigned low probabilities to those events, producing a substantial payout when they came to pass following a January 3, 2026, operation that captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Prosecutors say Van Dyke ultimately won about $400,000 from the wagers.
The criminal complaint brings five counts against Van Dyke: unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. The Justice Department's filing is notable as the first time it has pursued insider trading charges tied to activity on a prediction market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also initiated civil proceedings against him.
Prosecutors describe Van Dyke as a master sergeant with U.S. Army Special Forces stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina and say he was involved in the planning and execution of the January 3, 2026, raid. At an initial hearing in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S. Magistrate Judge Brian Meyers ordered Van Dyke released on a $250,000 bond. Garnett is expected to oversee the case in Manhattan going forward.
Polymarket notified authorities after flagging the trading activity and cooperated with investigators, according to the court filings. The filings also note that rival prediction market Kalshi previously blocked Van Dyke from opening an account due to its identification requirements.
It was unclear whether Van Dyke was represented by a defense lawyer at the time the charges were made public. The upcoming Manhattan appearance will address how he pleads to the federal indictment and set the next procedural steps in a case that intersects military operations, new forms of online trading, and federal enforcement of fraud and commodities laws.
Legal and market context
The prosecution combines criminal statutes typically used in insider trading and fraud cases with allegations tied specifically to prediction-market activity. Authorities have pursued both criminal and civil avenues, reflecting overlapping enforcement interests in trading platforms that accept wagers on real-world events.