Barclays has realigned its recommendations across select European suppliers to the injectable drug market, promoting Ypsomed (SIX:YPSN) to an "overweight" rating from "equal weight" while moving Gerresheimer (ETR:GXIG) in the opposite direction to "underweight" from "equal weight". The broker attached price targets of CHF 343 to Ypsomed and €19 to Gerresheimer.
Analysts at Barclays framed the repositioning as a signal of preference for device manufacturers over traditional drug containment solution providers within the injectable packaging space. The broker set out its rationale against the backdrop of a sizeable and growing market: Barclays estimates the combined DCS and devices market was worth €8.8 billion in 2025 and expects it to expand at a 9% compound annual growth rate through 2030.
The report highlights two subsegments showing differentiated growth. Auto-injectors, representing a €1.3 billion segment, are forecast to expand at 18% annually to 2030, while pre-filled syringes are projected to grow at 8% over the same timeframe.
Ypsomed: contractual protections and growth drivers
Barclays' analysts visited Ypsomed's Burgdorf, Switzerland facility and convened discussions with the company's CFO. They also spoke with Alexandre Conroy, a former Becton Dickinson executive vice president, to inform their view. The brokerage underlined that device makers often benefit from higher switching barriers compared with glass containment manufacturers.
In the United States, Barclays noted, drugs and their delivery devices are approved as combination products and are commonly supported by a single device on the FDA master file. That regulatory and commercial structure, the broker says, tends to provide device suppliers with stronger contractual terms, greater pricing power and improved revenue visibility.
Ypsomed holds the top position in pen injectors and ranks second in auto-injectors with about a 20% share of the €1.3 billion auto-injector market, where SHL Medical currently leads with roughly 60% share. Barclays projects Ypsomed's Delivery Solutions unit, excluding Sanofi, will see top-line growth of 16% and EBIT growth of 14% between fiscal years 2026 and 2030.
Barclays also noted it is 2%–3% ahead of Bloomberg consensus on EBIT estimates through 2030. More than 90% of Ypsomed's contracts are denominated in Swiss francs and include inflation adjusters, the broker said. During the site meeting, the CFO confirmed that key cost inputs such as plastic, labour and energy are contractually indexed, a feature Barclays believes helps protect margins.
Another driver factored into Barclays' forecast is CagriSema, Novo Nordisk's GLP-1/amylin combination that Ypsomed is manufacturing. Barclays attributes 300 basis points of its 16% top-line growth projection and 200 basis points of the projected EBIT expansion to CagriSema.
The brokerage also quantified downside risk tied to that program: it sees a 6% downside to its 2030 EBIT estimate if CagriSema is not launched, widening to 11% in a scenario where capacity is built but volumes fall short. Barclays noted that even with that downside, the company would remain inside Ypsomed's published EBIT guidance range of CHF 280 million to CHF 340 million.
Gerresheimer: structural and financial concerns
By contrast, Barclays lowered its view on Gerresheimer, citing several concerns. The broker pointed to the company's structural positioning within the market, an accounting probe by German regulator BaFin, and elevated leverage following its late-2024 purchase of Bormioli for €800 million. Post-acquisition leverage stood at 4.8 times.
Barclays observed that the stock trades at 8.9 times its 2026 price-to-earnings, the lowest multiple across the broker's coverage universe. It also noted that higher-value offerings such as pre-filled syringes and ready-to-fill products account for less than 10% of Gerresheimer's revenue.
The broker estimated that divesting Centor and Moulded Glass could generate roughly €1.2 billion of proceeds and reduce leverage to 3.3 times. However, Barclays warned that a potential rights issue would dilute adjusted earnings per share by about 32%.
On consensus comparisons, Barclays said it sits 4% to 8% below consensus EBITDA estimates for 2027–2028 and 9% to 10% below on adjusted EPS for the same period.
Schott Pharma: steady view
Barclays left Schott Pharma at "equal weight" while nudging its price target up to €16 from €15. The broker described Schott as a leading supplier in vials and polymer pre-filled syringes and third-largest in glass pre-filled syringes. It expects the company to deliver revenue growth of about 6% annually through 2030, sitting at the lower bound of its previously stated 6% to 8% guidance range.
Barclays also flagged reduced revenue visibility as a concern after guidance revisions over the past two years, which it linked to lower volumes from two large customers in the glass and polymer pre-filled syringe segments.
Overall, Barclays' moves underline a strategic tilt toward device-focused suppliers in the injectable-drug supply chain, driven by perceived advantages in contract structure, pricing and volume visibility. The broker quantified both upside from key product wins and specific downside scenarios tied to major program launches and capital structure outcomes.