S&P Global Ratings on Thursday revised its outlook on Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:CX) to positive from stable, while leaving the Mexico-based cement maker's 'BBB-' issuer credit rating unchanged. The ratings agency also affirmed its 'BBB-' issue-level rating on Cemex's senior unsecured debt and its 'BB' rating on the company's subordinated perpetual bonds.
In assessing Cemex's recent performance, S&P pointed to a mix of stronger operating results and active balance-sheet management. The agency reported that Cemex's S&P-adjusted debt to EBITDA stood at 2.5x in the first half of 2026. During the same period, funds from operations to debt were near 30% and free operating cash flow to debt exceeded 15%.
Underlying those ratios was a near 27% year-over-year jump in EBITDA for the first half of 2026, bringing EBITDA to $1.8 billion. S&P's forward expectations call for EBITDA to approach $3.6 billion in 2026 and to rise to about $3.7 billion in 2027.
On cash flow, S&P projects free operating cash flow of roughly $1.4 billion in 2026, compared with $649 million in 2025. That projection is based on the agency's view of higher EBITDA, lower interest payments of about $530 million and total capital expenditures of approximately $1.1 billion.
Management actions at Cemex have accompanied the improved operating picture. The company raised its ordinary dividend to $180 million for 2026, a 40% increase versus 2025, and launched a share repurchase authorization for up to $500 million over the next three years.
In June, Cemex completed multiple liability-management measures. Those included issuing $1.5 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2036, establishing a $3.0 billion committed revolving credit facility, repaying close to $1.8 billion in bank loans and redeeming $1.0 billion of subordinated perpetual notes. The company also announced plans to divest part of its Colombia operations for $485 million, with the sale targeted by the end of 2026.
S&P said the positive outlook reflects a realistic potential for an upgrade to the ratings within the next 12-24 months if Cemex preserves S&P-adjusted debt to EBITDA below 3x and maintains funds from operations to debt above 30% through industry cycles. Conversely, the agency noted it could revert the outlook to stable if debt to EBITDA returns to 3x or higher on a sustained basis, or if funds from operations to debt falls below 30%.
The affirmation of current ratings alongside a positive outlook signals that S&P considers both the recent reduction in leverage and the company’s recurring cash-generation capacity material to Cemex’s credit story. The rating agency’s explicit metric thresholds provide a clear test for future rating action tied to leverage and cash-flow performance.
Investors and market participants will watch the company’s ability to convert higher EBITDA into cash and to execute planned capital allocation measures, including the dividend increase, buyback program and the Colombia divestment, which are part of the broader effort to lower indebtedness and strengthen liquidity.