June 5 - Morgan Stanley is forecasting that SpaceX could achieve $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm attributes much of the anticipated upside to growth in SpaceX's artificial intelligence operations, which it expects will expand materially over the coming decade.
The company behind rockets and satellites has started meeting with prospective investors as part of an initial public offering roadshow that began on Thursday. Management is pursuing $75 billion in proceeds, a target that would make the offering the largest initial public sale to date.
Near-term and medium-term projections
Morgan Stanley's internal model places SpaceX's AI business at roughly $190 billion of revenue in 2030, with total company revenue projected to be near $330 billion that same year. Those 2030 figures are presented alongside longer-term expectations that extend to the 2040 horizon.
For context on recent performance, SpaceX reported revenue of $18.67 billion in 2025, up from $14.02 billion the previous year. The company recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 after posting a net profit of $791 million in the prior year. SpaceX's AI segment produced $3.2 billion of revenue in 2025.
Separately, another major investment bank has a different projection for the AI business, expecting it to reach $322 billion by 2030, according to a separate report.
Underwriting and verification
Morgan Stanley is listed among the lead underwriters for the proposed offering, alongside Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan. A Morgan Stanley spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The report underlying the projections could not be independently verified.
Key points
- Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue of $3.4 trillion by 2040, driven largely by its AI business.
- By 2030, Morgan Stanley models roughly $190 billion in AI revenue and about $330 billion in total revenue for SpaceX.
- SpaceX has begun its IPO roadshow aiming to raise $75 billion, with several major banks serving as lead underwriters.
Risks and uncertainties
- Projections rely on rapid expansion of SpaceX's AI business; actual outcomes may differ from modeled growth rates, affecting AI and technology sectors.
- Recent financials show a swing to a net loss in 2025, underscoring near-term profitability uncertainty for investors and capital markets.
- Key figures and forecasts cited could not be independently verified at the time of reporting, which introduces uncertainty for underwriters and market participants.
Note: This report summarizes projections and company performance figures as presented in the available reporting. It does not add new financial estimates or external context beyond those figures.