KB Securities has warned clients that stocks in robotics and space industries could be among the most exposed if markets slide, calling attention to similarities between today’s thematic investment fervor and the final phase of the U.S. dot-com bubble.
In a client note, analyst Euntaek Lee argued the unwind of the dot-com era did not occur as a single, simultaneous crash but rather in waves of collapsing names. The firm uses that historical sequence as a framework for spotting the sectors most vulnerable now.
Lee highlighted that the earliest companies to suffer in the dot-com episode were those whose valuations were "most dependent on future expectations rather than near-term cash flows." He cited AOL, Yahoo and Qualcomm as examples of names that began sliding as early as January 2000 - roughly a quarter before the Nasdaq reached its peak.
The second phase of that earlier correction, KB Securities said, affected businesses tied to outsized capital expenditure assumptions. The bank drew a direct line from that pattern to current market dynamics, suggesting certain thematic sectors may occupy the same risky profile today.
Specifically, KB Securities pointed to sectors such as power, robotics and space as categories in which companies often show weak earnings today and project profitability far into the future. Those characteristics, the bank said, make them susceptible if investor expectations shift.
The note also flagged market behavior in May as a potential early warning. During a period of market pressure associated with the Samsung Electronics labor strike, volatility rose most sharply not in Samsung itself but among thematic stocks - with robotics and space names among the most volatile.
By contrast, KB Securities suggested that semiconductor companies are relatively better positioned to endure a downturn. Lee wrote that "companies with actual earnings delivery are likely to be the last survivors of the current market surge," and added that semiconductor companies "may be the most likely candidates."
The bank's analysis frames the present investment environment as one where valuation sensitivity to long-term expectations and heavy capital spending programs could determine which groups suffer first in a correction and which may hold up better.