BioArctic shares dropped roughly 5% on Tuesday after Goldman Sachs shifted its recommendation on the company from Buy to Neutral, while trimming its 12-month price objective to SEK355 from SEK367. The brokerage said recent gains in the stock have substantially narrowed the potential upside to its revised target.
Goldman noted that BioArctic has seen a substantial run-up over the trailing year, with shares up 71.8% over the past 12 months. Since the firm placed BioArctic on its Buy list in December 2023, the stock has outperformed the SXDP index by 28.5 percentage points.
As part of the reassessment, Goldman cut its 2026 revenue projection by 18%, lowering the estimate to SEK935.7 million from SEK1.14 billion. The brokerage said this adjustment primarily reflects IQVIA data showing that Eli Lilly’s Kisunla is being adopted faster than Leqembi, which in turn pushes a sales milestone payment for BioArctic into 2027.
Forecasts for earnings per share were also revised. Goldman now models a 2026 EPS of a loss of SEK1.35, versus a prior projection of a SEK0.50 profit. The 2028 EPS estimate was trimmed by 4% to SEK9.15 from SEK9.56. Goldman’s valuation is based on a discounted cash flow framework using a 10% weighted average cost of capital and a 2% terminal growth rate.
Goldman outlined two core conditions it sees as necessary for further upside in BioArctic’s shares. First, additional licensing deals using the company’s BrainTransporter platform beyond the three agreements already in place with Eisai, Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis. Second, the emergence of convincing clinical data from the alpha-synuclein antibody exidavnemab in Parkinson’s disease and in Multiple System Atrophy (MSA).
On the timing and evidentiary bar for clinical readouts, Goldman said it will look to Phase 3 results rather than Phase 2 findings given what it described as the high-risk profile of the two indications targeted by exidavnemab. Regarding the Eisai-partnered BAN2802 program, Goldman indicated a development decision may not occur before 2027. The brokerage cited Eisai’s own Phase 2 anti-tau trial, with data expected in fiscal 2027, and recent setbacks in the anti-tau space, including Roche returning bepranemab to UCB and Johnson & Johnson discontinuing posdinemab.
For exidavnemab in Parkinson’s disease, Goldman projected non-risk-adjusted peak sales of $2 billion, assigning a 35% probability of success to that indication. The firm flagged that the MSA indication carries a comparable level of risk, citing Takeda’s discontinuation of TAK-341/MEDI1341 in October 2025 after disappointing Phase 2 results.
Goldman also highlighted a May 24, 2026 PDUFA date for the subcutaneous starting dose of Leqembi in the U.S. as a near-term catalyst, while describing the event as largely anticipated.
The brokerage provided a set of valuation multiples and capital metrics in its note. It said the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3x on 2025 earnings, moves to not meaningful in 2026 given the modeled loss, then recovers to 90.5x in 2027 and 35.5x in 2028. CROCI was shown at 147.5% for 2025 before turning negative at -20.1% in 2026. Net debt to EBITDA stood at -0.8x for 2025, reflecting a net cash position.
Within Goldman’s European biotech coverage, which the firm rates Buy overall, the average upside to targets is 87%, a contrast to the 9% upside implied by Goldman’s revised target for BioArctic.
Note: This report reflects Goldman Sachs’ published estimates, valuations and the company- and sector-specific details cited above.