Barclays' nowcast model produced a fresh estimate for the UK labour market today, projecting 673,000 job vacancies across the three months ending May 2026. That estimate implies a continued weakening in demand for labour compared with prior readings from the bank's model.
The 673,000 figure is 40,000 fewer vacancies than the model had implied for the December 2025 to February 2026 three-month span, when the model signalled 713,000 openings. It is also 48,000 below the actual count recorded for December through February, according to the data Barclays used in its analysis.
Barclays' nowcast synthesises high-frequency online vacancy data from providers LinkUP and Indeed. Both sources exhibited similar percentage declines over the recent period, a feature Barclays cites as consistent with the downward move in its headline three-month estimate.
Independent vacancy measures lend further weight to the softer picture. The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs survey showed the permanent private sector vacancies index falling by 1.6 points to 45.5 in May 2026 compared with April. By convention a reading below 50 is interpreted as a contraction in that index.
Beyond the three-month series, Barclays also publishes single-month nowcasts based on daily inputs. For May 2026 alone the bank's model nowcasts 637,000 vacancies. That single-month estimate is down 9.9% from the model-implied April 2026 level of 707,000 vacancies.
Barclays highlights that the single-month numbers are not seasonally adjusted and therefore display greater volatility than the three-month series. Nonetheless, the bank states that the May single-month nowcast is consistent with the easing trend observed in its headline three-month estimate.
Context and interpretation
The three-month nowcast decline to 673,000 and the May single-month estimate of 637,000 together indicate Barclays' model sees slackening in the UK vacancies picture in the latest period it covers. Both the online vacancy datasets used by the model and the KPMG/REC survey point in the same direction, reinforcing the assessment.