HSBC has issued an updated list of preferred equity ideas across the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, nominating companies it believes are positioned to deliver meaningful shareholder returns. The selection spans multiple sectors - notably telecommunications, agricultural chemicals, real estate, banking, mining and energy infrastructure - and concentrates on names where HSBC sees clear earnings momentum, stronger capital returns and industry-level tailwinds.
Investment focus and criteria
HSBC’s recommendations place emphasis on firms with visible, quantifiable catalysts for value creation. These include dividend reinstatements, strategic acquisitions and capacity expansions that are expected to lift volumes and margins. The bank highlights management actions and structural market dynamics as the principal drivers behind its stock picks.
Company-by-company highlights
-
MTN Group (MTN SJ) - South Africa
HSBC is forecasting strong 2026 performance for MTN, looking for roughly 18% revenue growth and 24% growth in EBITDA, which it expects to translate into a 36% year-on-year increase in clean earnings per share - a figure HSBC says sits ahead of consensus. Management has set a dividend framework to return 40-60% of free cash flow to equity, and buybacks have been explicitly referenced at up to 20% of free cash flow to equity. HSBC views the proposed IHS acquisition as de-risking and immediately accretive to the business.
The bank notes that MTN’s core operations in Nigeria and Ghana have not shown material cost or capital expenditure impact from the current geopolitical conflict situations cited in the market. However, MTN disclosed a 9.7% drop in first-quarter service revenue, which the company attributed to currency devaluations in Nigeria. MTN is also reported to be in discussions to sell its stake in a Ghana-based cell tower joint venture.
-
SABIC Agri-Nutrients (SAFCO AB) - Saudi Arabia
HSBC highlights SAFCO as a direct play on elevated urea prices and on nitrogen demand, which the bank considers more resilient than demand for phosphates and potash. The bank expects that nitrogen pricing will settle at a higher post-crisis base given the persistence of supply shocks. HSBC also points to SAFCO’s SAFCO 6 and 7 projects, which together add approximately 3.8 million tonnes of additional blue ammonia and urea capacity versus the company’s current 4.8 million tonnes, underpinning medium-term volume growth.
On recent results, SAFCO reported a 22% year-on-year fall in first-quarter net profit, a decline the company attributed to lower average selling prices while sales volumes remained broadly stable.
-
ALDAR Properties (ALDAR UH) - UAE
ALDAR beat expectations in the first quarter of 2026, with EBITDA up 22% year-on-year, a performance HSBC attributes to resilient recurring income. Investment-adjusted EBITDA rose 18% year-on-year, supported by high occupancy and rental growth. The company is carrying a record backlog of AED 72.1 billion and has replenished its land bank with a gross development value of AED 61 billion, which HSBC views as providing strong earnings visibility.
ALDAR also reported a 15% increase in net profit for Q1 2026 and announced a joint venture to acquire Al Hamra Mall for AED 410 million.
-
Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) - Greece
HSBC expects Alpha Bank to deliver the strongest earnings-per-share compound annual growth rate among Greek banks, at around 17%. The bank points to the full-year consolidation of Astrobank in 2026 as a contributor to higher earnings. HSBC also expects fee income to accelerate through Alpha’s investment banking arm, Axia, together with contributions from insurance operations Altius and Universal, which should lessen the bank’s reliance on net interest margin.
Alpha Bank recently completed the sale of a non-performing loan portfolio with a gross book value of €0.5 billion and has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance.
-
Sibanye Stillwater (SSW SJ) - South Africa
HSBC projects a material increase in EBITDA for Sibanye Stillwater in 2026 - about a 48% year-on-year rise on the bank’s platinum group metals price assumptions - reflecting significant operating leverage to precious metals. Leverage has fallen, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA down to 0.59 times, and the company has reinstated dividends. HSBC also flags the company’s exposure to lithium via its stake in Keliber as a source of longer-term optionality.
External analyst commentary cited in the coverage notes that Jefferies upgraded Sibanye Stillwater to Buy from Hold, referencing a more positive outlook for platinum group metals prices and the company’s progress on deleveraging.
-
Astor Enerji (ASTOR TI) - Turkey
Astor has seen roughly USD 1 billion of US export orders year-to-date, with the United States now representing about two-thirds of the company’s estimated backlog. HSBC lays out a path for revenues to more than double from approximately USD 1.1 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 2.4 billion in 2028, with reported EBITDA margins expected to expand from the low-30% area toward the high-30% range.
-
Marafiq (MARAFIQ AB) - Saudi Arabia
Marafiq expects tariff discount compensation to start being received between the second and third quarters of 2026. In early May 2026, the company announced it was in discussions about selling power output under a cost-plus model. HSBC highlights this as a potential measure to mitigate margin compression that has resulted from higher fuel costs.
What these picks imply for markets
HSBC’s cross-sector slate underscores a focus on cyclical recovery plays where earnings and cash flow are expected to improve materially, alongside companies in more structural-growth areas such as telecom and selected energy infrastructure names. The bank’s ideas highlight management-led moves to return capital, and capacity expansions that should support medium-term volume and earnings visibility across the nominated businesses.