Summary: Northwest European gasoline refining margins dropped $2.69 to $25.73 per barrel on Wednesday following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that his ceasefire agreement with Iran was not final and that he could resume the war if he remained unsatisfied. The margin decline came even as stocks in the region fell and multiple gasoline barge trades were reported. U.S. gasoline inventories registered a notable draw for the week ending June 12, and Brazil's finance ministry signalled a potential end to fuel subsidies contingent on crude oil prices stabilising around $80 per barrel.
Market movement and catalyst
On Wednesday, Northwest European gasoline refining margins moved lower by $2.69, settling at $25.73 per barrel. The price reaction followed statements from U.S. President Donald Trump that a recently announced ceasefire with Iran was not definitive and that he retained the option to resume military action if the agreement fell short of his expectations. The comments appear to have weighed on refining economics in the region.
Barge trades in Northwest Europe
Market participants reported activity in the Eurobob gasoline barge market. Approximately 6,000 metric tons of Eurobob E5 gasoline barges were transacted in the Argus window, with Exxon selling to Varo and Gunvor. In a separate set of transactions, around 13,000 metric tons of Eurobob E10 gasoline barges changed hands, with TotalEnergies and Shell selling parcels to Varo, Trafigura and Exxon. These movements show liquidity in the barge market despite the margin decline.
Inventory developments
U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by 906,000 barrels in the week ending June 12, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The reported draw in American inventories coincided with the regional stock reductions but did not prevent the slide in Northwest European refining margins that day.
Policy signals from Brazil
Separately, Brazil's Finance Ministry executive secretary Rogerio Ceron told Reuters that the country will end subsidies for diesel and gasoline if crude oil prices stabilise around $80 per barrel. The comment links potential changes in Brazilian subsidy policy to a specific crude price level, signalling a conditional approach to domestic fuel support.
Outlook notes
The combination of geopolitical comments from a U.S. president, active barge trading in Eurobob product lines, a U.S. gasoline inventory draw and policy remarks from Brazil all featured in market flows on Wednesday. The margin move was negative for refining economics in Northwest Europe on that day, even as tangible physical trades and inventory draws were recorded.
Data points cited in this report
- Northwest European gasoline refining margins: down $2.69 to $25.73 per barrel (Wednesday).
- Eurobob E5 barge trades: ~6,000 metric tons; seller-to-buyer flow noted as Exxon to Varo and Gunvor.
- Eurobob E10 barge trades: ~13,000 metric tons; TotalEnergies and Shell sold to Varo, Trafigura and Exxon.
- U.S. gasoline stock change: -906,000 barrels for the week ending June 12 (EIA).
- Brazil: potential end to diesel and gasoline subsidies if crude oil prices stabilise around $80 per barrel - Rogerio Ceron to Reuters.