Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not include an interest-rate projection in the central bank's quarterly set of forecasts released today, a divergence from customary practice that comes three weeks into his tenure as Fed chair.
The Fed's dot plot issued on Wednesday recorded 18 submissions rather than the anticipated 19 from the full cohort of policymakers. The central bank did not identify which official chose not to participate in the rate-projection component of the release.
Warsh is the sole newly seated policymaker at the Fed's rate-setting table since the prior round of forecasts. He has previously voiced criticism of the institution's use of forward guidance and the publication of quarterly projections.
The dot-plot chart, published quarterly since 2012, is intended to disclose where individual policymakers expect the federal funds rate to head. The publication does not link individual policymakers to specific dots, and Fed officials acknowledge the tool's limits - it does not reveal how each policymaker's separate economic forecasts feed into their rate outlooks.
Despite those limitations, the central bank maintains that the dot plot serves a purpose for market participants and the public by offering insight into policymakers' thinking.
Warsh has argued that forward guidance can lock policymakers into a particular rate trajectory without adequately accounting for incoming economic data that could warrant a different path.
The only previous example of a Fed policymaker withholding parts of their projections involved former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard routinely provided near-term rate estimates but opted not to submit figures for the longer-run neutral rate.
In the latest release, the Fed said 17 of 19 policymakers submitted projections for 2028.
The decision by the chair to withhold a projection is notable for its timing and rarity, and it underscores ongoing debate within the Fed about how much guidance to provide publicly and how those signals should be constructed in the face of evolving data.