Wall Street's biggest alternative asset managers are preparing to defend their businesses as they report quarterly results, contending with renewed investor wariness about artificial intelligence-driven disruption to portfolio companies and a slumping retail appetite for private credit products.
The term "alternative assets" covers investments outside traditional public equity and fixed income markets - notably private equity, private credit and real estate. Shares in many of the largest firms have been under pressure for several months amid fears that AI could upend the economics of software-heavy holdings and that retail investors are withdrawing from funds that do not offer ready liquidity.
Fundraising picture in private credit
Data from With Intelligence, a unit of ratings giant S&P Global, show total private credit fundraising essentially unchanged in the first quarter versus the prior quarter, at $49.9 billion. Within that broader category, direct lending - the segment receiving the most scrutiny - saw fundraising drop to $10.7 billion in Q1, its weakest quarterly total in three years, according to the same data.
Market commentators expect this pressure to persist through the year. Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr said recently: "We don’t expect the first-quarter prints to be anywhere near as good as what the banks just reported," pointing to slower fundraising, uneven dealmaking and retail investors withdrawing capital.
Retail redemptions and shifting investor base
One central concern is the evolution of the investor mix for funds that provide exposure to illiquid private loans. Historically dominated by institutions such as pensions, these vehicles have in recent years also attracted substantial capital from wealthy individuals. That strategy has helped firms grow assets under management but has increased sensitivity to retail redemption flows.
Analysts at Oppenheimer said they were lowering price targets for several managers in advance of the earnings season, characterizing the move as "grudgingly as recognition of the change in investor perceptions." In a note examining Ares Management, KKR and Blue Owl Capital, Oppenheimer highlighted that affluent individual investors now make up a meaningful share of assets for several firms - about 24% of total assets at Blackstone and roughly 40% at Blue Owl, the analysts noted.
"Redemptions from retail funds in recent months call into question the trajectory of the retail growth story for these stocks," the Oppenheimer analysts wrote, while also stating their view that the retail market could ultimately represent a large opportunity for many managers. Firms earn fees on the money invested in those funds, meaning a sustained shrinkage could reduce fee income.
Industry response and credit quality
Managers have emphasized that the credit quality within private credit portfolios remains intact and that the current concerns are driven more by media narratives than by a deterioration in fundamentals. Nonetheless, some observers are urging caution.
Francesca Ricciardi, a private credit specialist at Debtwire Europe, said the pressures seen today differ from past episodic strains. "The key difference today is that current pressures are structural rather than transitory, as the causes behind current market stress are unlikely to resolve within a few quarters," she told Reuters, suggesting a deeper reassessment of the private credit model, especially around liquidity expectations and valuation credibility.
Private equity exit dynamics
Private equity - the founding business for many of the largest alternative managers - remains a focal point for investors. The traditional playbook is to acquire companies, implement operational improvements and eventually exit holdings at a profit. That process has been hindered by higher interest rates in recent years, which have discouraged sellers from accepting lower valuations.
Expectations had been rising for 2026 that firms could unwind a backlog of roughly 29,000 companies held across portfolios, but geopolitical developments, including the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, have unsettled markets and complicated exit timing. At the same time, heightened investor scrutiny has centered on sizable investments in software businesses amid anxiety over potential AI disruption.
Earnings season and near-term tests
The upcoming quarterly reporting cycle, beginning with Blackstone on April 23, will be closely watched for signs of whether managers can reassure investors about portfolio resilience, fundraising momentum and redemption trends. Analysts and industry participants are carefully parsing results and commentary for indications of whether current pressures are passing or represent longer-term structural shifts.
For managers that have leaned into expanding retail distribution and building large exposure to software assets, the immediate task will be to demonstrate stable credit fundamentals, durable fee streams and a credible path to liquidity for investors in funds that invest in illiquid loans.
Investors, meanwhile, will be watching for concrete evidence from fundraising figures, portfolio performance and redemption trends to determine whether recent market skepticism is overdone or justified.