U.S. retail sales increased 1.7% in March, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau reported on Tuesday, a larger advance than economists had expected. The monthly series, which mainly captures goods transactions and is reported before adjusting for inflation, exceeded the median forecast in a Reuters poll that had projected a 1.4% rise.
February’s figure was revised slightly higher to a 0.7% gain from a previously published 0.6% increase. Forecasters’ estimates for March had ranged from a 0.4% gain to a 2.0% increase.
The March strength was supported in part by higher receipts at service stations. Retail gasoline prices rose sharply in March - a 24.1% jump according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration - after global oil prices climbed by more than 30% as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran pushed energy markets higher. Those higher pump prices inflated spending at the pumps, contributing noticeably to the headline retail-sales gain.
Auto sales also added to the monthly advance. The Census Bureau noted that auto receipts likely benefited from manufacturer incentives, which can raise unit volumes or gross receipts in the short term.
The Census Bureau said it has completed work to clear a backlog of monthly retail sales data that had accumulated following last year’s government shutdown. Officials said the April retail sales report will be released on schedule next month.
Analysts have attempted to quantify the consumer impact of conflict-driven energy price increases. Economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research estimated that war-driven price increases have added $857 to Americans’ average annual gasoline costs for this year.
Tax refunds also provided support to consumer spending in March. Internal Revenue Service data showed the average tax refund was up $351 through March 27 compared with the same period in 2025. The Treasury Department had earlier estimated the average tax refund would be $1,000 higher compared with the 2024 fiscal year.
Data notes: The retail sales series cited here reflects nominal receipts and is not adjusted for inflation. The Census Bureau attributed part of the March increase to higher gasoline and auto receipts, and confirmed its reporting schedule is back on track following earlier delays.