New Delhi, Sept 2 - India’s statistics secretary defended the government’s updated estimate that the economy expanded 7.8% in the April-June quarter, saying recent revisions to GDP data follow the adoption of additional sources and more detailed price information rather than any deliberate bias in the statistics.
Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg responded to public skepticism after a former finance secretary raised concerns that a sharp downward revision to growth in the April-June quarter of the prior fiscal year made the current 7.8% reading appear relatively stronger. The statistics ministry rejected that interpretation and said the numbers reflect a new GDP series with a 2022/23 base year and revised historical data to account for updated sources and methodologies.
"It’s a combination of both these, which has led to these revisions," Saurabh Garg told reporters, attributing the changes to a mix of fresh input data and methodological adjustments.
Government figures show India’s economy expanded 7.8% in the April-June quarter, a result that comfortably exceeded economists’ expectations. Growth slowed from 8.6% in the January-March quarter - a figure that itself was revised up from 7.8% previously - but the April-June outcome represented an acceleration from 6.9% a year earlier and surpassed the Reserve Bank of India’s 7% forecast for the first quarter.
The statistics secretary emphasized that two technical shifts accounted for much of the recalibration. First, the GDP series now uses a producer price index (PPI) in place of wholesale price data. Second, the authorities incorporated additional data sources. "The PPI provides more granular price information, with the number of deflators used in the estimates rising to more than 300 from about 180 previously," Saurabh Garg said.
Those methodological updates, officials said, necessitated revisions to historical quarterly and annual data under the new base year. The statistics ministry pushed back against claims that revisions were systematically lowering the previous year’s base to inflate later growth numbers. Instead, Saurabh Garg noted that quarterly revisions over the past three years have moved in both directions and that changes at the annual level have been comparatively modest.
Looking ahead, the statistics secretary said revisions to quarterly estimates should be smaller going forward, as more timely data are now available under the revised system. He nonetheless cautioned that some adjustments are unavoidable when additional information arrives.
The debate over the revisions drew political attention. Comments by a former finance secretary were amplified by the opposition, which seized on them to question the integrity of the updated figures and to suggest the government had manipulated the data. Party figures described the revisions as questionable, while officials maintained the changes reflect standard statistical practice in response to enhanced data and methodology.
For now, the official position is that the new GDP series and PPI adoption explain the revisions and that future quarterly changes should diminish as the statistical apparatus incorporates timelier inputs. Some variation in estimates, however, remains likely as fresh information is integrated into the system.