Summary: OPEC+ is widely expected to keep its supply policy for October as it concludes the rollback of one tranche of production cuts and prepares to concentrate on setting 2027 quotas. The group’s influence on market prices and share has been weakened by ongoing disruptions to exports, and a capacity assessment due at the end of September could make next steps contentious.
Meeting and immediate outlook
Seven core members of OPEC+ - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman - will take part in an online meeting that sources expect to start at 1100 GMT, two of the sources said. Those participants are likely to confirm no change to the group’s October output policy, as one layer of production cuts is being unwound this month.
Market context and constraints
Persistent conflict in Iran has continued to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. That disruption is cited in the reporting as a factor that has reduced OPEC+’s ability to shape prices and maintain market share. In addition, wars in Iran and Ukraine have interfered with exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan, contributing to a shortfall between the group’s planned quota increases and actual crude flows.
Completed and continuing cuts
The increase agreed in early August completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut that was first agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates. The UAE left OPEC in May, having felt its quota did not reflect its growing production capacity. Despite the recent rollback, OPEC+ still maintains another layer of production cuts that apply to most members of the 21-country grouping until the end of 2026.
Capacity review and 2027 quotas
OPEC+ is conducting a review of members’ oil production capacity to set the 2027 baselines that will underpin quotas. Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton is carrying out the assessment for most members and is expected to deliver its report to OPEC at the end of September, according to one source. The submission of that report could lead to difficult negotiations ahead of the group’s year-end meeting when new baselines and quotas are due to be set.
Member positions and potential exits
Some members, including Iraq, have advocated for higher quotas to reflect what they assert is increased production capacity. The UAE’s departure from OPEC was partly driven by similar concerns about its quota. The article also notes that Venezuela is considering an exit from OPEC, a development that has been reported elsewhere and is part of the broader context for internal negotiations.
Organizational notes
OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia. OPEC, its dominant producer Saudi Arabia, and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
This report summarizes the situation as described by sources and reflects the specific developments, timelines and positions detailed above.