Soaring crude markets have elevated soybean oil prices to their highest point in more than three years, creating a favorable environment for oilseed processors. Companies such as Bunge Global and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) have benefited from North American soy crush margins expanding to their strongest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The combination of stronger crush margins and a recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announcement raising biofuel blending mandates has reduced some of the uncertainty that had weighed on agribusiness results. That boost is helping cushion rising energy and shipping costs linked to processing grain and mitigate global trade disruptions tied to tariff disputes and the Iran war.
Analysts say those factors are prompting upward revisions to 2026 profit expectations for the two large grain traders. Bunge is scheduled to report quarterly results on Wednesday, with ADM reporting the following week. While both firms are forecast to post first-quarter earnings that are lower than the strong results recorded in the same period a year ago, analysts expect companies to lift 2026 profit guidance because of the improved oilseed processing outlook and the removal of EPA-related uncertainty that had affected recent quarters.
"Jaw-dropping improvement in North America," analyst Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research wrote in a note describing developments realized late in the first quarter. Jones raised her first-quarter earnings-per-share estimate for Bunge to $0.95, up from $0.92, and increased her full-year 2026 projection for the company to $9.15 per share from $8.03. For ADM, she lifted her 2026 profit outlook to $4.36 a share from $3.98 a share, while noting that one-off items were expected to depress its first-quarter results.
Other broker estimates adjusted as well. Stephens Inc raised its first-quarter estimate for Bunge by $0.12 to $0.93 a share, while trimming its estimate for ADM by $0.04 to $0.62 a share. For context on company guidance, Bunge last projected adjusted 2026 profit in a range of $7.50 to $8.00 per share; ADM in February forecast 2026 earnings between $3.60 and $4.25 a share.
Oilseed processing has become a lucrative segment amid strong demand for plant-based oils to produce biofuel, driving what industry observers describe as the largest-ever U.S. crushing expansion in recent years. Elevated soyoil prices could continue to underpin strong crush margins as crude prices stay high amid global supply disruptions related to the Iran war.
That said, the upside for crushers is capped by capacity and cost constraints. Processing activity in North America is running at near-maximum capacity, limiting the ability to ramp up volumes further. High construction costs - including tariffs on steel and aluminum - and interest rates that are higher than they were a few years ago are discouraging new investment in additional crushing facilities. Sources in the processing industry note that building a new plant typically requires at least three to four years from initial concept to opening.
Industry plans include one new crush plant slated to open later this year and two expansions of existing facilities expected to come online, according to processing industry sources. Those relatively small additions signal modest near-term increases in capacity rather than a broad wave of new construction.
Should you invest $2,000 in ADM right now? ProPicks AI evaluates ADM alongside thousands of other companies every month using 100+ financial metrics. Using powerful AI to generate exciting stock ideas, it looks beyond popularity to assess fundamentals, momentum, and valuation. The AI has no bias - it simply identifies which stocks offer the best risk-reward based on current data with notable past winners that include Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Want to know if ADM is currently featured in any ProPicks AI strategies, or if there are better opportunities in the same space?