Rising crude oil prices have pushed soybean oil to its strongest levels in more than three years, improving margins for oilseed processors and providing a tailwind to companies such as Bunge Global and Archer Daniels Midland.
North American soy crush margins have climbed to their highest point since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a development that is bolstering profitability for firms that process oilseeds into vegetable oils and meal. That boost to processing economics is occurring even as companies contend with steeper energy expenses for processing and higher shipping costs for grain.
Market disruptions beyond energy costs are also weighing on trade flows. Tariff disputes and the Iran war have contributed to global trade challenges, but a more favorable oilseed price environment is helping to offset those headwinds for processors.
Analysts have responded by lifting profit forecasts for 2026 at both Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland. The upgraded outlooks follow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's release last month of higher biofuel blending mandates after an earlier delay, a regulatory development that removed a source of uncertainty that had dampened results in prior quarters.
Bunge is scheduled to report quarterly results on Wednesday, with Archer Daniels Midland expected to report the following week. Both companies are forecast to post first-quarter earnings that are lower than the same period a year earlier. Despite those year-over-year declines, analysts expect management to raise 2026 profit guidance given the favorable oilseed processing backdrop and the clarity provided by the EPA's biofuel mandate announcement.
On the analyst front, Stephens Inc adjusted its first-quarter estimates differently for the two firms. For Bunge, Stephens raised its Q1 estimate by $0.12 to $0.93 per share. For Archer Daniels Midland, the firm trimmed its Q1 estimate by $0.04 to $0.62 per share.
Company guidance referenced earlier remains in place: Bunge had last projected 2026 adjusted profit in a range of $7.50 to $8.00 per share, while Archer Daniels Midland in February forecast 2026 earnings between $3.60 and $4.25 per share.
Taken together, the interplay of higher crude-driven vegetable oil prices, regulatory clarity on biofuel blending, and ongoing cost and trade pressures frame a mixed near-term earnings picture for processors that may still point to stronger full-year profit expectations for 2026.