A poll of 15 analysts published on Monday indicates Mexico’s year-on-year inflation rate likely declined in May, continuing a recent downtrend but remaining higher than the central bank’s target range.
Headline figures
The median forecast from the survey projects headline consumer price inflation at 4.03% in May, down from 4.45% in April. If realized, this would mark the second consecutive month of falling annual inflation, though the level would still sit above the central bank’s goal of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.
On a month-to-month basis, the poll's median shows headline consumer prices dropping 0.12%. The survey cited seasonal electricity subsidies in certain cities and lower prices for fruits and vegetables as the main factors behind that monthly decline.
Core inflation and underlying trends
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items, is forecast to ease to 4.20% year-on-year from 4.26% in April. The projected reading would represent a fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest core inflation rate since May 2025.
Despite the annual slowdown in the core measure, the monthly core index is expected to rise 0.24%, reflecting persistent upward pressure on goods prices. That upward pressure is, according to the poll, partly offset by promotional discounts during the "Hot Sale" online shopping event.
Policy context
Earlier in May, Mexico’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. The bank's governing board has said it considers it appropriate to keep the rate at its current level going forward.
The poll results reinforce expectations that the central bank may maintain the policy rate for an extended period, given that inflation, while easing, remains above the bank's tolerance range.
Note: The projections above are the median forecasts from a poll of 15 analysts published on Monday and represent expectations ahead of official data releases.