Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,114 total articles
A senior Goldman Sachs rates executive told the bank's podcast that bond markets have placed sensible odds on Federal Reserve rate rises as inflation tied to war pressures persists. Muhammad Qubbaj, co-head of US interest rate products, said elevated prices, economic resilience and corporate investment in artificial intelligence justify traders' po…
The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement to disburse nearly $700 million in aid to Ukraine, even though lawmakers did not pass a tax measure the lender sought. The arrangement, according to people familiar with the matter, can be announced imminently but still requires IMF board approval next month. The concession permits…
A member of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council says a reduction in the central bank’s policy rate is now likelier than an increase, following a surprise slowing of inflation. While tightening remains a possibility, officials including the governor and other MPC members report diminished odds of raising the 3.75% benchmark given softer price pressures…
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin argue that the balance of risks in Federal Reserve policy is moving toward firmer inflation rather than the threat of weaker hiring. They point to recent spikes in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, stronger-than-expected inflation readings in May, and a robust labor market as fac…
A Reuters poll of 65 economists finds unanimous expectation that the Bank of England will hold its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its June 18 meeting. The median view in the survey is for rates to remain unchanged through the rest of the year, but nearly 40% of respondents still foresee at least one rate increase, and a small minority expect cuts. Energy-dr…
Net redemptions from U.S. equity funds totaled $12.57 billion in the week ending June 10, the first weekly outflow since May 20, driven by caution after recent labor and inflation data that pushed up rate-hike bets. Despite the overall pullback, technology funds attracted fresh money for a tenth consecutive week, while bond funds recorded their lar…
India's consumer price index climbed to 3.93% year-on-year in May, below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target and beneath economists' expectations of 4.02%. Food inflation, which carries roughly 37% weight in the CPI basket, rose to 4.78% in May. The data followed a recent RBI decision to hold interest rates and comes amid government steps to shor…
Jakarta intends to issue Indonesia's first municipal bond within a year as the city seeks new revenue sources following substantial cuts to central government transfers. City officials are consulting the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank on structuring the securities, with proceeds earmarked for infrastructure projects currently under devel…
UBS expects the European Central Bank to deliver one additional interest rate increase and then pause its tightening cycle, arguing that slowing growth will constrain further hikes despite markets pricing a more aggressive path. The bank highlighted the ECB’s updated staff forecasts showing higher headline and core inflation for 2026 and noted risi…
Hedge funds trimmed positions in the largest U.S. technology stocks and in some cases took on bearish bets in the days before SpaceX's planned initial public offering, according to a JPMorgan note released late Thursday. The group of stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven" - Nvidia, Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft - fell fro…
China's banks extended 520 billion yuan in new yuan loans in May, a recovery from April's monthly contraction but below analyst forecasts. Ongoing weakness in the property sector and subdued household borrowing weighed on overall loan demand, while broad monetary aggregates and total social financing showed only modest change from April.
Italy's Treasury is considering a new bond exclusively for institutional investors that would be linked to domestic inflation and modelled on its euro zone-linked BTPs. The instrument, which could be issued next year depending on market conditions, is part of a broader strategy to expand and diversify the investor base while meeting sizeable fundin…
The Bank of Japan is considering suspending the scheduled reduction in its government bond purchases from April 2027, according to several people familiar with the matter. The decision is likely to be tightly contested among the BOJ's nine-member board as officials weigh market stability against a steady path to shrink the central bank's large bala…
U.S. futures climbed as comments from President Donald Trump raised the prospect of a near-term agreement to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy-driven inflation pressures. Investors also prepared for the highly anticipated Nasdaq debut of SpaceX, a listing projected to be the largest in U.S. history by valua…
The Dutch central bank forecasts a marked deceleration in the Netherlands' economic expansion in 2026, driven in part by trade disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices that keep inflation above the European Central Bank's 2% target. Moderation in growth is expected to be temporary, with a modest recovery projected for 2027…
U.S. equity markets have pulled back after a rapid rally, and investors face an uncertain week as incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first policy meeting. With consumer inflation accelerating and employment data solid, markets will scrutinize the Fed’s rate outlook, projections and Warsh’s communications for clues on futur…
The Justice Department has stepped back from an $1.8 billion administrative payout plan framed as an 'anti-weaponization' fund. In its place, some allies of the president and conservative lawyers are pressing claims under the Federal Tort Claims Act, a 1946 law that allows individuals to seek compensation from the federal government through adminis…
The Bundesbank said Germany will escape a recession in 2026 as planned increases in government spending - especially on defense and infrastructure - offset the economic drag from a war-related spike in energy prices. The central bank trimmed its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, highlighted downside risks to activity and upside risks to inflation…
The People’s Bank of China reported that new yuan loans reached 520 billion yuan ($76.92 billion) in May, marking a recovery from April’s 10 billion yuan contraction but falling short of the 550 billion yuan analysts had expected. The May figure also trails the 620 billion yuan recorded in the same month a year earlier. Broad monetary indicators sh…
Turkey's finance minister said the government will meet its budget deficit target even as it applies a sliding fuel pricing mechanism to blunt the pass-through of higher crude oil costs to consumers. The minister also projected the current account shortfall to be 3% of GDP or lower by year-end and said the country's disinflation path will resume af…
Global equity funds recorded net inflows for the third straight week through June 10, driven by purchases of technology stocks as investors capitalized on a recent market pullback and maintained exposure to the AI-related rally. Bond funds also saw continued demand, while U.S. equity funds, emerging markets, precious metals and money market vehicle…
Regulatory filings indicate that dividends paid by U.S.-listed private-credit lenders are supported by slimmer cash flows than headline figures imply. Median dividend coverage across 46 business development companies dropped to 0.99 times in Q1 2026 on a reported basis and to 0.89 times when payment-in-kind interest is excluded. The narrower margin…
The Bundesbank says elevated government spending - notably on defence and infrastructure - will prevent Germany from falling into recession this year despite a war-driven surge in energy prices and elevated inflation. It trimmed growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, flagged upside risks to inflation and persistent core price pressures through 2028, a…
U.S. banking supervisors have broadened their scrutiny of how lenders deploy artificial intelligence, asking institutions to map AI use in higher-risk activities and to demonstrate controls over data access, third-party providers and system shutdown capabilities. Regulators are collecting information through routine exams and a planned request for …
A packed calendar of policy meetings and geopolitical developments will test markets this week. Kevin Warsh chairs his inaugural Federal Reserve meeting amid renewed concern about persistent inflation. World leaders gather in France as Middle East and Ukraine conflicts dominate the agenda. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to lift rates to 1% wh…
