Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,068 total articles
The U.S. Treasury raised its estimate for third-quarter borrowing to $739 billion, $68 billion above its May projection, with a larger opening cash balance tempering but not eliminating the increase. The department also outlined fourth-quarter and second-quarter cash and borrowing figures, and signaled it will publish detailed refunding plans, incl…
A Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey for July reported largely unchanged lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans during roughly the second quarter, while demand patterns diverged across firm sizes and consumer loan types. Banks cited stronger C&I loan demand from large and middle market firms, mixed lending standards for…
Citadel Securities cautions that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s repeated vows to tackle persistent inflation, combined with limited detail on how the central bank will act, are generating uncertainty among investors. The firm says reliance on market moves to tighten financial conditions could create a feedback loop that ultimately undermines c…
Euro zone government bond yields eased on Monday after oil prices declined following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about imminent talks with Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The move lowered inflation expectations and pulled short- and long-term German yields down, cutting back some market bets on further European Central Bank tighten…
U.S. construction spending edged down 0.1% in June, driven largely by weaker residential outlays as higher mortgage rates damp demand for new single-family homes. On a year-over-year basis spending was 3.2% lower. Public projects held steady while private nonresidential investment showed a small uptick, even as factory-related spending fell.
Japan confirmed it took part in yen-buying market intervention on Friday with assistance from the U.S. Treasury. Market participants say the U.S. bought yen using euros rather than dollars, a tactic analysts call highly unusual. Authorities appear intent on strengthening the yen without signaling a desire for a weaker dollar, a stance shaped by U.S…
U.S. manufacturing expanded in July to its strongest pace since May 2022, according to the Institute for Supply Management. A surge in orders and a rebound in factory hiring pushed the PMI to 55.6, while slower supplier deliveries and persistently high prices for inputs highlighted ongoing supply-chain and inflationary pressures tied to the Middle …
A recent analyst poll finds Brazil's central bank is expected to trim its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points at its August 5 meeting, marking a fourth consecutive reduction. While the committee has moved cautiously this year, persistent inflation pressures and fiscal constraints are likely to limit how quickly rates are eased further, and offi…
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields climbed sharply last week after remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, triggering a bear steepening of the yield curve and renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Analysts at Wolfe Research warned that the move in the long end of the curve is both a symptom and an amplifier of the United States' chall…
A recent BTG Pactual/Nexus poll published today finds President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading challenger Flávio Bolsonaro by a single percentage point in a head-to-head runoff scenario. The survey places Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, a narrowing from the same poll's late July results and within its stated margin of error.
A recent Nexus/BTG Pactual poll finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro virtually tied as Brazil moves toward the October presidential election. In a hypothetical second-round runoff Lula holds 46% to Bolsonaro's 45%, while first-round figures show Lula at 41% and Bolsonaro at 37%. The survey of 2,002 respondents was …
Japan and the United States carried out coordinated yen-buying intervention last week, a rare joint action intended to blunt rapid falls in the currency. The intervention produced a sizeable short-covering reaction and pushed the yen higher to about 155.20 per dollar, yet analysts warn that without faster Bank of Japan rate hikes the gains are like…
Bank Indonesia's acting governor said a recent policy package is meant to deter commercial banks from treating BI's rupiah securities as investment vehicles and to encourage greater lending. The comments came at a Financial System Stability Board press event following the central bank governor's surprise resignation and measures to alter reserve re…
Germany's financial regulator BaFin has ordered NordLB to overhaul its customer data after identifying violations of the country's Money Laundering Act. The regulator cited process flaws and a significant backlog in updating customer information and required the bank to submit and implement a corrective plan. The order became legally binding on Jun…
The crypto industry has directed substantial financial resources toward the November midterm elections, spending roughly $189 million this cycle and leveraging a major super PAC network to back candidates perceived as favorable to digital-asset legislation. Lawmakers are under pressure to act on both the narrower Genius Act for stablecoins and the …
U.S. stock-index futures climbed on Monday after signs of easing tensions in the Middle East weighed on crude prices. Investors are also parsing preliminary merger discussions in the healthcare sector and preparing for a dense calendar of corporate earnings and economic data, including a slate of AI-linked company reports and Friday’s U.S. non-farm…
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told Reuters in an interview published Monday that the Fed will raise interest rates if required to bring inflation back to its 2% objective. He said he expects inflationary pressures to ease if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and described current policy as "well positio…
Bank of America expects Mexico's central bank to keep its policy rate at 6.50% at the August 6 meeting. The bank says a stronger GDP print reduces downside risks but does not indicate overheating, while headline and core inflation both sit under 4%, giving Banxico latitude to remain patient. BofA maintains that the central bank will likely stay on …
New York Fed President John Williams said he expects inflationary pressures to subside gradually if key shocks have peaked, but warned the Federal Reserve will act with additional rate hikes if inflation does not move toward the 2% target. He emphasized close attention to core inflation data in coming months and supported the recent decision to hol…
In a wide-ranging interview conducted on July 31, two days after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams laid out his assessment of inflation drivers, the role of tariffs, the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices, and the Fed's rationale for holding policy steady. He described his b…
A coordinated effort by U.S. and Japanese authorities to counter speculative selling of the yen reflected months of planning and unusually frank public and private alignment on exchange-rate concerns. Tokyo shifted from public warnings to discrete coordination with Washington, culminating in yen-buying operations that temporarily steadied the curre…
South Korea's finance ministry on Aug 3 put forward revisions to the annual tax code that would raise taxes on multiple and high-priced property owners while expanding exemptions for those who own and live in a single home. The measures, announced after a closed-door meeting convened by President Lee Jae Myung, aim to address surging house prices a…
The Bank of Japan said global demand tied to artificial intelligence could sustain upward pressure on Japan's inflation, noting that an investment surge linked to AI may outpace productivity improvements in the near term. The central bank highlighted rising producer prices driven both by higher oil costs from the Middle East conflict and a positive…
This week’s market agenda is dominated by renewed developments in the Middle East and a U.S. employment report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance. Readouts on U.S. manufacturing and services activity, the first quarterly results from SpaceX after its landmark initial public offering, and earnings from Advanced Micro Devices are also …
Global financial markets head into the week marked by intense volatility across AI-related stocks, an unexpected coordinated yen intervention by Japan and the U.S., renewed tensions in the Middle East, and mounting climate-driven disruptions in Europe. Key economic events include India’s central bank policy meeting and the U.S. non-farm payrolls re…
