Economy June 11, 2026 09:30 AM

Kenya pares back 2026 growth outlook, cites Middle East conflict

Treasury flags weaker growth, ongoing infrastructure financing gap and plans to clear supplier arrears in 2026-27 budget address

By Maya Rios
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Kenya has revised its 2026 GDP growth projection down to 5.3%, Treasury Secretary John Mbadi said in the 2026-27 budget speech, attributing the adjustment to disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The government signalled that food prices should remain stable owing to favourable weather and a steady exchange rate, while near-term inflation is expected to remain within target. Officials also highlighted an annual infrastructure financing shortfall of about $5 billion and unveiled plans to clear verified supplier bills and extend a bank capital deadline.

Kenya pares back 2026 growth outlook, cites Middle East conflict
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Key Points

  • Kenya's 2026 growth forecast lowered to 5.3% due to impacts from the ongoing Middle East conflict - affects overall economic activity.
  • Government expects stable food prices and near-term inflation within target, citing favourable weather and a steady exchange rate - relevant to agriculture and consumer markets.
  • Treasury highlights an infrastructure financing gap of about $5 billion per year and will settle 155.3 billion shillings in verified supplier bills, repaying 68 billion shillings of arrears in 2026-27 - impacts construction, suppliers and public service budgets.

Treasury Secretary John Mbadi announced a lower growth outlook for 2026, saying the economy is now expected to expand by 5.3% in the coming year. The revision was explained as a response to the effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on domestic economic activity, according to Mbadi's 2026-27 budget speech.

The budget presentation set out expectations for prices and inflation. The government anticipates that food prices will remain steady, a projection Mbadi linked to favourable weather conditions and a stable exchange rate. In that context, officials expect inflation to remain within the target range in the near term.

On fiscal pressures, the Treasury highlighted an annual infrastructure financing deficit of roughly $5 billion. Mbadi said that reliance on debt to fund infrastructure projects has raised debt service costs, which in turn has squeezed fiscal space and reduced allocations available for health, education and social protection.

Addressing outstanding government obligations, the budget speech said the administration intends to settle 155.3 billion shillings of verified bills owed to suppliers and contractors. The government plans to use a mix of direct budget allocations and securitisation to meet those obligations, and will repay 68 billion shillings of arrears during the 2026-27 fiscal year.

The Treasury also announced an extension to a banking sector deadline. Banks were given an additional three years, moving the timeframe to increase their capital tenfold out to 2032.

The measures outlined in the budget speech combine macroeconomic projections with specific fiscal actions aimed at addressing arrears and easing near-term price pressures, while acknowledging ongoing financing constraints for infrastructure investment.

Risks

  • Ongoing conflict in the Middle East creating uncertainty for domestic economic activity - risk to overall growth and sectors sensitive to external shocks.
  • A persistent infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $5 billion annually - risk to long-term capital projects and related cash flows in construction and utilities.
  • Higher debt service from debt-financed infrastructure reducing spending on health, education and social protection - fiscal risk affecting public services and social sectors.

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