Oppenheimer has taken the lead among global brokerages by initiating coverage of SpaceX in the run-up to the company's $75 billion market debut scheduled for Friday. The firm placed an "outperform" rating on the stock and established a $190 12-month price target, a level that implies roughly 41% upside relative to SpaceX's IPO price of $135.
Under Oppenheimer's scenario, the $190 target corresponds to an expected market capitalization of about $2.5 trillion for the Elon Musk-led company within the next 12-18 months, even as SpaceX is pursuing an IPO valuation reportedly around $1.75 trillion.
In a research note published Thursday, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan described SpaceX as "the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent." Horan singled out the Starlink satellite internet service as the principal near-term cash generator and said SpaceX's AI operations, which include xAI, are likely to become the largest contributor to the business over time.
Horan also raised the possibility of a future corporate combination with Tesla, calling such a merger "plausible," while adding that he expects both companies to "remain a quasi-vertically integrated ecosystem" to preserve access to capital.
Other research firms have offered different valuations. New Street Research initiated coverage with a 12-month price target of $165. By contrast, Morningstar analysts this month valued SpaceX at $780 billion, a figure that is less than half of the company's reported IPO target; Morningstar flagged uncertainty about the prospects for SpaceX's AI ventures, including xAI and the social media platform X.
Market mechanics around the IPO also affect when and how brokerages can publish research. Underwriters on the IPO are required to observe a post-listing quiet period before launching coverage, while brokerages not serving in the syndicate face no such restriction and can publish their views shortly before or immediately after the listing. J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among more than a dozen banks acting as underwriters for the offering.
Looking ahead to trading dynamics, Oppenheimer's Horan anticipates "an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion" following the market debut.
Context and next steps
Oppenheimer's initiation is the first published coverage from a global brokerage on SpaceX, and it sends a bullish signal by assigning an outperform rating and a price target that implies substantial upside from the IPO price. Other firms have opened coverage with more conservative valuations, and analysts differ on the near-term earnings trajectory tied to SpaceX's AI initiatives.
Investors and market participants will watch early trading for signs of the supply-demand dynamics Oppenheimer describes, and will also weigh divergent analyst views as the company transitions to public markets.