Prediction markets - platforms where users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of sporting, business, economic and political events - are on track for steep expansion, according to a new analysis from Bernstein.
The firm forecasts event-contract volumes rising to roughly $240 billion by the end of 2026 and ultimately expanding to about $1 trillion by 2030. Bernstein frames this as a structural shift in how markets for information are organized and traded.
From gaming to information markets
Bernstein says prediction markets are moving beyond a narrow gaming niche into broader, more sophisticated "information markets." The report identifies three principal pillars underpinning that growth: increased federal regulatory clarity, the establishment of mainstream distribution partnerships, and a structural liquidity advantage over traditional, state-regulated gaming frameworks.
As these platforms gain legitimacy, Bernstein argues they are beginning to operate as efficient forecasting tools for a wide array of real-world outcomes, rather than solely serving recreational bettors.
Blockchain and institutional integration
A core accelerator for adoption, the report states, is blockchain-based tokenization. Bernstein's analysts say tokenization helps facilitate global liquidity, lowers barriers to institutional participation and permits the creation of so-called "long-tail" event contracts - highly specific or niche outcomes that would be difficult to trade in traditional venues.
The analysis notes that rising federal regulatory clarity is expanding the addressable market. By shifting beyond the constraints of local and state-regulated environments, platforms are positioned to integrate more tightly with broader crypto ecosystems.
Bernstein expects these markets, as they mature, to become important infrastructure for price discovery and for managing risk. That maturation is already attracting a growing cohort of institutional capital that historically avoided the fragmented and limited scope of traditional betting sites, the report adds.
Limitations: The report's projections and the characterization of the sector's evolution are presented as Bernstein's analysis and expectations.