Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
770 total articles
Most Asian currencies traded with little movement as the dollar remained close to its strongest levels in over a year. Markets are focused on U.S. nonfarm payrolls for further guidance on monetary policy after hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve chair heightened expectations of at least one rate increase this year. Country-specific moves incl…
Bank of America has closed a short EUR/GBP position opened in May, taking a 0.60% euro gain as the pair approached the 0.86 area. The trade was implemented via a three-month zero-premium risk reversal and was closed because rising political uncertainty in the U.K. reduced the near-term risk/reward. Despite the exit, the bank retains a medium-term v…
Sterling weakened modestly on Wednesday while the euro slid further as traders positioned for remarks by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB’s Sintra conference. The dollar's resilience reflects rising market expectations of continued Fed hawkishness, with money markets pricing modest additional tightening. UK manufacturing showed cont…
Eurozone government bond yields held firm as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the preliminary June inflation report and a key appearance by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the Sintra forum. Germany's 10-year bund yield ticked up to 2.9% while other core and peripheral yields traded in narrow bands. Market participan…
Asian currencies traded mostly weaker as the U.S. dollar remained broadly supported and the Japanese yen lingered close to a four-decade low amid intervention concerns. Uncertainty over Middle East diplomacy and upcoming U.S. policy signals, including remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, kept traders …
Barclays forecasts that the Turkish lira will maintain its downward trajectory under a managed policy framework, where authorities carefully pace depreciation to ensure monthly returns. The strategy, aimed at generating a 1% total monthly return for long lira positions, hinges on continued declines in oil prices and subdued local demand for dollari…
Barclays projects that the National Bank of Romania will sustain the euro-Romanian leu exchange rate at existing levels to anchor inflation, yet warns that ongoing political turbulence may continue to weigh on the currency. The bank highlights that the leu appears overvalued based on real effective and behavioral equilibrium models, noting that a p…
Capital Economics forecasts the euro will weaken to roughly $1.10 against the US dollar by the end of 2026. The consultancy points to a widening gap in interest rate expectations - with markets pricing in Federal Reserve hikes on the back of strong US growth and persistent core inflation, and the European Central Bank expected to keep policy unchan…
Sterling and the euro dipped against a steadier dollar as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Sintra address and Thursday’s U.S. jobs report. Despite an uptick in risk appetite after reports that Washington and Tehran agreed to resume nuclear talks, the dollar regained some poise. UK GDP data showed resilient growth but a drop in re…
Short-dated Eurozone government bond yields moved as markets braced for a slate of economic data and high-profile central bank speeches at the European Central Bank’s annual Sintra forum in Portugal. While short-end yields broadly eased, the two-year German government bond yield ticked up to 2.52%, and the 10-year bund remained steady at 2.88%, clo…
The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level since 1986 on Tuesday, reviving talk of official intervention, while Chinese factory data that unexpectedly returned to expansion steadied the yuan and supported broad sentiment in Asian foreign exchange markets as the second quarter closed. The US dollar strengthened ahead of US payrolls data, and several…
Natixis CIB currency strategists say the recent climb in the US dollar has likely topped out after market participants fully factored in the Federal Reserve's hawkish messaging. The bank recommends selling the dollar through structured options - with reverse-knock-out barriers - versus the euro, yen and offshore yuan, citing regional policy diverge…
The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday after data showed speculators increased their bearish wagers to the largest level so far this year. Market attention is also on upcoming Canadian GDP figures and a Bank of Canada appearance at a central banking forum, while oil price moves continue to influence the currency.
The South African rand showed little net movement on Monday, trading around 16.4626 to the U.S. dollar as market participants positioned for a slate of domestic economic data and monitored planned anti-immigration demonstrations due on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar held steady on a trade-weighted basket, while oil prices climbed after recent strikes inv…
The Japanese yen weakened to a level not seen since 1986, trading as low as 161.96 per U.S. dollar, as market forces favored the dollar despite recent moves by Japanese authorities and the central bank. Authorities have signaled readiness to act if speculative pressure becomes excessive, while the currency shift is lifting exporter profits and supp…
Sterling and the euro advanced modestly on Monday, driven primarily by weakness in the U.S. dollar rather than fresh domestic developments. Market caution on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, mixed signals from oil, and a calendar of U.S. economic indicators helped shape weekday trading. ING economists flagged several potential triggers for dollar demand…
Bank of America continues to position for a weaker Israeli shekel by holding a long USD/ILS trade opened at 2.99 that is trading near 3.0. The bank links the pair's upside to an anticipated decline in the S&P 500 and broader EM currency weakness, and notes the shekel appears overvalued. Local hedging flows tied to U.S. equity exposure remain the do…
Eurozone government bond yields rose on Monday after a fragile pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities left energy routes exposed, sending crude prices higher and renewing inflationary worries. Germany's 10-year Bund yield moved up to 2.86% while the two-year yield, sensitive to policy expectations, rose to 2.53%. Markets are also awaiting U.S. non-farm pay…
Asian currencies traded in tight bands as markets digested a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran and prepared for a heavy slate of regional economic data. The New Zealand dollar continued its sharp monthly slide while the Australian dollar also faced downward pressure. Investors awaited readings from China, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Ind…
The International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, told reporters that the U.S. dollar continues to serve as the primary anchor for global trade, banking and central bank reserves despite shifts in trade relationships stemming from recent tariff measures. He noted limited movement away from a dollar-centered system, highl…
UBS has grown more bullish on the U.S. dollar, lifting its forecasts and nudging down targets for several major currencies. The bank expects the euro and Japanese yen to weaken further against the dollar by late 2026, sees sterling as comparatively resilient, and trimmed its outlook for the Australian dollar amid softer domestic data and reduced he…
Foreign exchange option contracts across several of the major currency pairs are due to expire today at 10am ET, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. Notable blocks include multi-hundred-million euro and dollar positions clustered around nearby strikes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and others, with spot rates sitting close to …
Prime Minister Viktor Magyar said on Friday that Hungary intends to meet the European Union's conditions for eurozone entry by about 2030, though he acknowledged the country currently satisfies none of the formal criteria. He cited survey evidence of public backing for the euro and pointed to recent strengthening of the forint and falling governmen…
The Taiwan dollar eased on Friday as foreign investors continued to withdraw funds from local equities for a fourth straight session. Intervention by state-owned banks, supplemented by dollar sales from some exporters, helped cap the currency's slide. The USD/TWD pair finished the day slightly higher and posted a weekly gain.
BCA Research trimmed its short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, pointing to a rally that it considers overextended after recent Federal Reserve repricing, heavier long positioning, softer oil prices and less supportive seasonal patterns. The firm advised closing tactical long USD positions, warned that USD/JPY sits near levels that increase the ri…
