Morgan Stanley anticipates Nintendo will stage a Nintendo Direct presentation in September centered on The Legend of Zelda's 40th anniversary and early content for the Switch 2 platform, the brokerage said on Wednesday.
In its briefing, Morgan Stanley expects the presentation to include a teaser for the live-action The Legend of Zelda movie scheduled for release in April 2027. The firm also said it expects Nintendo to disclose a release date and gameplay details for The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, which Morgan Stanley projects will launch around November.
The brokerage highlighted the possibility of an additional positive surprise from a new 3D Mario game. It noted that investor expectations are shifting toward a major 3D Mario release in 2027, reflecting Nintendo's pattern of introducing 3D Mario titles early in new console cycles. Morgan Stanley cited cumulative sales of Super Mario Odyssey at 30.8 million units.
Beyond Nintendo's proprietary franchises, Morgan Stanley expects the September Direct could spotlight more third-party titles being adapted for the Switch 2. The brokerage pointed to a series of such announcements at Nintendo's June Direct and said it anticipates some new games will be launched simultaneously on the platform.
The report frames these content developments against the backdrop of Nintendo's transition into the early Switch 2 cycle. Morgan Stanley said the company's valuation will increasingly hinge on earnings expectations for the middle phase of the console cycle as the new hardware and its software pipeline progress.
On market moves tied to the brokerage note, Nintendo shares traded down 1.9% at 8,935 yen on Wednesday, while the Nikkei 225 fell 2.7% on the same day. Morgan Stanley's outlook positions the September Direct as a potentially important near-term catalyst for assessing Nintendo's software roadmap and its implications for the Switch 2 cycle.
Context and takeaways
- The September Direct is expected to focus on Zelda's 40th anniversary and early Switch 2 content, including a film teaser and Ocarina of Time release details.
- Morgan Stanley sees upside potential from a new 3D Mario game and notes continued third-party support and possible simultaneous releases on Switch 2.
- The firm's view underscores that Nintendo's mid-cycle earnings trajectory for Switch 2 will be a growing driver of the stock's valuation.