Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
770 total articles
UBS has lifted its EUR/CZK forecast to 24.5 throughout its projection window, adjusting earlier calls of 24.3, 24.3, 24.4 and 24.5. The bank said it brought forward anticipated longer-term koruna weakness to reflect near-term pressures tied to risk sentiment around the war in Iran, noting that market mood has eclipsed fundamentals in recent trading…
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow bands as markets focused on the risk of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran escalating. The Japanese yen outperformed peers after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and a strong verbal intervention warning from a senior currency diplomat. Elsewhere, oil-driven shifts in Fed rate cut expectations and local…
The U.S. Treasury announced that President Donald Trump’s signature will be added to $100 banknotes beginning in June as part of the nation’s 250th anniversary events, replacing the long-standing placement of the U.S. Treasurer’s signature and placing the sitting president among a limited set of world leaders whose autographs or likenesses have bee…
Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to South Korean won rate to remain constrained in the near term amid ongoing Middle East tensions, citing South Korea's vulnerability to energy-price swings and shifts in investor risk sentiment. The bank warns that sharp upward moves in USD/KRW could trigger policy responses, and projects the pair to move lo…
Most Asian currencies were largely unchanged as traders assessed diplomatic developments between the U.S. and Iran and weighed their possible influence on oil prices. The U.S. dollar remained supported by expectations of prolonged elevated U.S. interest rates, while the Indian rupee fell to a new record low against the dollar. Market participants s…
The U.S. Treasury announced that President Donald Trump’s signature will be added to U.S. paper currency to mark the 250th anniversary of American independence, a first for a sitting president. At the same time, the signature of the Treasurer of the United States will be omitted from currency for the first time in 165 years. The first $100 bills be…
Bank of America has revised its near-term foreign exchange outlook to reflect stronger U.S. dollar performance through the second quarter, citing sustained high energy prices and shifts in central bank pricing. The bank now projects EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 160 by end-Q2, while retaining a view of gradual dollar depreciation later in 2026 con…
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges while the U.S. dollar remained firm as investors parsed ambiguous signals over a U.S. proposal to end hostilities in the Middle East. Oil markets were subdued and the Indian rupee traded close to its record lows as traders weighed geopolitical uncertainty alongside expectations around U.S. monetary poli…
Most Asian currencies traded within narrow ranges on Wednesday as market participants balanced inconsistent reports from the Middle East against moves in commodity markets and central bank expectations. The US dollar held firm overall even as the US Dollar Index ticked 0.1% lower; the Australian dollar fell after consumer inflation eased in Februar…
Barclays expects Turkey to continue allowing the lira to depreciate at the current pace as a deliberate instrument to stabilize inflation. The bank has set a year-end USD/TRY target of 50.25 and projects this level by the end of 2026, citing central bank reserve deployment and a 300 basis point increase in TRY OMO funding rates to limit local dolla…
Barclays projects the Mexican peso will strengthen against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year, setting a USD/MXN forecast of 17.25. The bank points to early movement on the USMCA review and sensitivity of the peso to global risk appetite as drivers of its outlook. Barclays also highlights the limited net effect of higher oil prices on Mexico's …
Barclays expects the Chinese yuan to trade in a consolidative range against the U.S. dollar through the summer, citing seasonal pressures and lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The bank highlighted typical year-to-year factors such as a widening services deficit and dividend-related foreign exchange demand from Hong Kong-listed Chines…
Barclays projects the U.S. dollar-Hong Kong dollar rate will consolidate above 7.82 in the near term in line with broader dollar strength, before moving back toward the midpoint of the linked exchange rate band (7.75-7.85) later in the year. The bank cites renewed carry trade positioning driven by the Middle East conflict and increased IPO activity…
Barclays has revised up its outlook for the Australian dollar, forecasting AUD/USD at 0.74 by year-end. The bank attributes the upgrade to an AI-linked commodity demand shock, a firmer Reserve Bank of Australia policy stance and reduced vulnerability to Middle East energy disruptions, alongside an improvement in hedging costs for US asset exposure.
Barclays continues to forecast a gradual appreciation of the Swiss franc even after the Swiss National Bank signaled a dovish tilt at its March meeting. The investment bank argues the SNB's reluctance to curb franc strength through negative interest rates or markedly larger foreign exchange interventions, combined with current account trends and ro…
Barclays anticipates the Canadian dollar will underperform other commodity currencies as ongoing trade frictions with the United States create near-term uncertainty. The bank highlights limited progress in renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, notes the treaty's automatic renewal marker on July 1, and points to energy prices as t…
Barclays predicts the Japanese yen will face short-term weakness driven by geopolitical developments but anticipates a gradual, modest rebound later as negative terms-of-trade shocks reverse. The bank believes intervention risks will limit extreme yen depreciation near the 160 level, and notes that recent Bank of Japan board appointments and potent…
UBS has increased its near-term projections for the USD/JPY currency pair, citing persistently elevated global energy prices that advantage the United States as a net energy exporter while weighing on Japan as a major energy importer. The bank raised its June 2026 and September 2026 targets, left December 2026 and March 2027 forecasts unchanged, an…
Most Asian currencies eased on Tuesday as markets processed conflicting messages about talks related to the Middle East and reacted to a rebound in the U.S. dollar. The greenback firmed, while Japanese core inflation unexpectedly cooled below the central bank's target and the flash manufacturing PMI softened, prompting a more cautious outlook for m…
Bank of America has grown more cautious on the British pound, recommending a short position in GBP/USD from the low 1.34s toward 1.30. The call reflects a market reassessment of the Middle East conflict as likely more prolonged, increasing risk-off behavior, pressuring UK gilts and amplifying political and fiscal concerns ahead of the May elections…
Bank of America strategists, including Adarsh Sinha, now expect the euro to weaken against the U.S. dollar in the near term—revising their EUR/USD forecast to 1.14—before regaining strength later in the year toward a 1.20 year-end target. The revision reflects altered macro assumptions following the Middle East conflict and related energy supply di…
The British pound climbed above $1.34 on Monday, recovering from earlier lows near $1.32, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary delay in military strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure following what he described as productive discussions. Global equities moved higher while oil and gold prices fell sharply on the developm…
UBS's Chief Investment Office lowered its June forecast for GBP/USD to 1.34 and expects the pound to face near-term pressure from dollar safe-haven flows, elevated oil prices and pre-election UK political uncertainty. While the firm sees the pound supported by attractive carry and a potential recovery toward 1.40 later in its forecast horizon, it w…
UBS Switzerland AG has lowered its projection for the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate in June to 0.91, attributing the downgrade to persistent US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and increased investor risk aversion. The bank outlines a risk-off scenario that could drive EUR/CHF below 0.90 and as low as 0.88, while retaining a medium-term forecast o…
Sterling fell on Friday, pulled down by firming oil prices even after the Bank of England delivered a more hawkish-than-expected message that has lifted expectations for future UK interest rates. The pound eased to $1.34, trimming some of Thursday’s strong advance, while EUR/GBP was steady and EUR/USD retreated amid renewed dollar support and ECB r…
